Geelong v Melbourne, Skilled Stadium

Here are the facts for this game:

- Melbourne has yet to win a game this year including all 4 pre-season matches. That is 0-6 for the season so far.

- In two regular season games, the Demons have lost by a combined 199 points.

- Geelong has won 21 of their past 22 matches.

- Last week Geelong beat Essendon by 99 points after Essendon beat top 4 team North Melbourne in round 1 by 55 points.

- Geelong is I believe the shortest priced favourite in the history of AFL betting at 1.03.

- Melbourne will not win this match. Nor come within 40 points. Unlikely to come within 60 or even the line of -72.5.

- This is the worst start to a season since the hapless Lions in 1996 – the year they played with a third grade team and merged with Brisbane.

These are the facts. The margin of victory is the only thing up in the air. So how has it come to this for the Demons?

Melbourne have a poor list attempting a new style of game plan with a new coach, there is trouble off-field as they struggle for money and a relocation of their training facilities, they are re-building with youngsters not yet up to AFL level and they rely still on old veterans/senior players with either waning interest or who are just physically no longer up to it. Last week we thought they would show some fight against the Bulldogs after being smashed in the opening round by the Hawks, but after quarter time they were lifeless.

Geelong on the other hand are playing just as well as they did in the last half of last season which means beating teams with their eyes closed. Last week, the Bombers tried to match it with Geelong’s midfield – no respect was payed to Bartel, Ablett, Corey and Selwood so the Cats duly ran riot and won by 99 points. Will the Cats be motivated for this match? There is always a chance that Geelong will believe the hype and won’t be terribly interested in this match and while this attitude will still bring about a win, the margin will unlikely be 3 figures. Melbourne have regained defender Jared Rivers but I doubt he will help much, Geelong will win the midfield convincingly and should win by at least 60 points on the scoreboard. The line of 72.5 while seemingly high will seem very low if the Cats bring their A-game and therefore is worth having a look at.

It is all up to the Cats and the attitude they take into this match. If you are looking at placing a multi bet on today they are good value to win by 40 points or more at around 1.25, and we’ll take the Cats to win by 60 points or more at 1.50. Taking Melbourne at the line is placing your faith in a team that so far deserves none. On a clear warm day without much wind the Cats 9 times out of 10 will take this match by 60 points or more.



Pick : Geelong to win by 60 points or more
Odds : 1.50
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-06
Match Result : 112-82
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