Essendon v Carlton MCG

The only thing certain in this match is that it will be a high scoring one. These teams last year played twice and both ended in the score being over 220 points. Although this year the Blues haven’t quite got it together on the attacking side, they played a good St.Kilda team and a pumped up Richmond without Brad Fisher and Judd, Stevens etc. lacking some match conditioning. Fevola is ready for a big game and though Dustin Fletcher and Mal Michael are top defenders, there will be next to no pressure on the Carlton midfield delivering the ball forward.

Both teams play an attacking style of game, the Bombers in particular and they are likely to score over 100 against Carlton who have had scores of 109 and 125 kicked against them so far this season. Carlton will relish the space the young Bomber midfield will give them and have scoring power with Fevola, Fisher, Betts and Judd. I like the Bombers, they are young, quick and full of enthusiasm and I think they might be too much for the Blues. That said, Carlton were good in patches last week against the Saints and won’t be pressured as much this week meaning they could sustain that good play for more of the match. If this game was being played at Telstra Dome, I would put 10 stakes on the total match score being over 221, but outside with a little wind on a wider ground and at night at the MCG this may be a little riskier. The Australian TAB is offering a total match score over/under of 198.5 however it is tied in with a winning margin (eg. Essendon under 39.5/ total match score over 198.5) or with the line (eg. Ess -8.5/tms >198.5). I expect the score to make it over this line; however picking a winner in this match is still too difficult.

The over 221 match score with medium stakes, as I think it is about a 2-1 chance therefore value at 2.85 though if I could find over 198.5 by itself or something similar I would take it.



Pick : Total Match Score over 221
Odds : 2.85
Stake : 5 / 10
Bookmaker : Sportstab(AUS)
Date : 2008-04-05
Match Result : 134-150
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