West Coast v Fremantle

The Western Derby as it is known always throws up surprises as it is the battle for bragging rights to being the best team in Western Australia. At least until they meet again later in the year. The betting for this match has been rather interesting, both teams started equal however Fremantle have been well backed in to favouritism though I’m not to sure why. Picking a winner in this match is rather difficult. The case for the Dockers is they have yet to win a match and will be fired up particularly given they are playing their cross town rival and despite not winning a match I like the positive signs I see from coach Mark Harvey who pointed out their two losses were against top 4 teams from last season. Fair enough if you ask me, though I think Fremantle face an uphill battle to make the 8 without Hasleby and a still non-functioning forward line.

For this match Fremantle are missing Heath Black as well while the Eagles midfield is full strength. There were positive signs last week against the Hawks with youngster Rhys Palmer showing pace and skill though I’m sceptical about Ibbotson and Mayne at this stage they haven’t adapted to the speed of senior AFL footy and will take some time to develop. Midfield’s for each team read as follows: Freo – Bell, J.Carr, Headland, Peake, M.Carr, Palmer, Mayne, Schammer, Ibbotson and Duffield.

West Coast - Kerr, Cox, Embley, Braun, Priddis, Selwood, Hurn, Stenglein, Fletcher.

I believe the Eagles win out. J.Carr, Headland and Palmer look the goods; Bell has dropped off with other interests, Peake and Schammer tease but wouldn’t get a game at Geelong or Hawthorn, Mayne and Ibbotson are young and not up to pace yet. This will be shown up as although the Eagles have lost Cousins and Judd they play the same pressure filled footy and Fremantle struggle under pressure. I heard a quote from ex Freo coach Chris Connolly during the week that went something along the lines of “You can’t really do much when you keep turning the ball over, and at Freo we just had too many guys with poor foot skills.” Guys like Dodd, Crowley, M.Carr all struggle by foot with no pressure on them and I expect immense pressure from the Eagles this week after their debacle last week. As well for the Dockers, Tarrant continues to under-perform although I expect him to put in a good one tonight as he is really under the pump. Perhaps of more significance was the poor game last week of Dean Cox who I find it unlikely will play another. He has far too many tools for Sandilands in the ruck who is another Docker with potential that seems never to be realised.

The Eagles were smashed last week in a very un-eagle like performance by the Crows. John Worsfold is not the kind of guy to accept beatings like that and will have his players ready to make amends tonight. They still have a tight backline and should contain Pavlich, Tarrant and McPharlin who for Fremantle’s sake must be played forward, as long as the Eagles lift the work-rate and pressure in the midfield which I expect. The Eagles results so far haven’t been too flattering losses to Freo in the NAB cup and the Crows last week while hanging on to win despite being outscored in the last 3 quarters by Brisbane in round 1, but tonight is an Eagle home game derby where 40,000 Eagles supporters will make life unenjoyable for the Dockers and will help the Eagles over the line.

West Coast has so far struggled to kick enough goals; the mix isn’t quite right up forward and this is a why if they win it shouldn’t be by too much. But I will take them just to win with medium stakes and though there is good value for them to win by under 39.5 I believe they are still good value just for the win and my margin picking has so far been rather poor.

West Coast win.



Pick : West Coast win
Odds : 2.00
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Centrebet
Date : 2008-04-05
Match Result : 73-87
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