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Awards
It always amuses me that the first ever winner of the National was named Lottery, back in the 1800's, as in realistic values it is a lottery if you can pick one horse and it wins. I have had my biggest ever gambling win on this race when Bindaree won an epic battle against What's up Boys back in 2002, and rdeacon managed to secure odds of reward upwards of 28/1.
Essex had rarely known such delights of a Deacon pi$$ up, but the Twiston Davies trained, Jenny Mould owned son of the mighty stallion Roselier got up in the shadow of the post thanks to a tremendous ride by Jim Culloty.
This years renewal will go to a winner who has won a £17k chase over 3 miles, has run within 49 days of his previous run, is not a french bred, who has run between 4-6 times this year, who has run at least 10 times over fences, who has a racing weight of 11st 1lbs or under and who has a RPR of 135 or above.
There are of course many other viable stats of the greatest steeplechase known to mankind, but my 5 against the field are........................................
Comply or die 2 POINTS WIN 13 with Ladbrokes
Fundamentalist 1 point EACH WAY 81 with Corals 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3,4,5
Black Apalachi 1 point EACH WAY 67 with William Hill 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3,4,5
D'argent 1 point EACH WAY 34 with William Hill 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3,4,5,
Butlers Cabin 2 points win 19 with Corals
Now I recognise that this may cause a whole world of grief with the 1 tip per game rule boys, but if Canary can come up with umpteem bets for a grand prix, then i can come up with 5 for the national !!
Comply or die fits a lot of stats, and i'm happy to have him as my favourite against the bookies favourite of cloudy lane, who i think will not stay the marathon trip. He is tained by the Master trainer Martin Pipe's son David Pipe, and he will know how to get one ready after the likes of Minnehoma, and BlowingWind.
D'argent is trained by Alan King, and has won the obligatory £17k chase over 3 miles, and run the right amount of times, and not fallen enough, and just plain fits the bill, likedear old Bindaree did all those years ago.
Butlers Cabin is the mount of a certain AP McCoy, who despite his umpteen jockeys titles, has never won the national. This year he has had the choice of several JJ runners and has plumped for this former irish national winner. There has been many former irish national winners win this big prize, and there will not be a dry eye in the house if AP boots this one home.
Fundamentalist is a tribute to his trainer NIgel Twiston Davies. Being in the same care as former winners, Earth Summit and Bindaree, he automatically warrants respect, bearing in mind he fits all the stats except the weight carrying one, you begin to think that he is grossly overpriced.
D'argent will more than likely win the national as he has impeccable "winning" stats. Alan King has had a great year with Katchit winning the champion hurdle and could well add to his tally with the National winner. This son of Roselier ( like Bindaree ) has run creditably all season, and has the perfect profile of a national winner.
Whatever the mods say,i'm backing these 5 for the biggest race in the world, and i reckon i will come out with a good few beans to show for it.