North Melbourne v Hawthorn

This should be an entertaining affair if the last match between these two teams is anything to go by. The Roos beat the Hawks in a Semi-Final at the MCG last season which saw tempers on the Hawks behalf overheat ultimately leading to suspensions for Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge, Campbell Brown and Shane Crawford. Crawford is still out serving his ban while Lewis returns to the line-up for the first time this season, replacing the injured Stewie Dew. The Hawks have added small forward youngsters Cyril Rioli and Cameron Stokes who have so far provided speed and goals to an already potent forward line, while last week young Travis Tuck picked up 25 possessions in a tough hot match out west against Fremantle. Everywhere you look, the Hawks have the goods the only worry particularly with Trent Croad injured and out of the line-up is whether they have enough talls in defence. This isn’t the problem it could potentially be with other clubs though because the Hawks make up for it with their midfield pressure, meaning the opposition are always under pressure when they attempt to pass the ball forward. This is the sign of a really class team; they have it together on both the attacking and the defensive aspects of the game.

North Melbourne bounced back well last week against the Tigers after their horrible performance against Essendon in round 1 and looked more like the team that made the top 4 last year. One of the keys to their forward line is the amount of goal scoring options they have and last week Corey Jones bobbed up with a lazy 7. The Hawks will have trouble covering the Roos forwards, particularly Thompson, Edwards and Jones; but the game will be won or lost in the midfield. Both teams are evenly matched in the middle and not having to deal with Crawford will be a weight off the Roos shoulders. Having said that Hawthorn’s midfield is running as smoothly as ever despite having lacked some of its best parts and winning the midfield means a tough day for opposition defenders matched up with the likes of Franklin, Roughead and Boyle. On the face of it the Hawks have form, major revenge motivation from their semi final loss last season, a winning midfield and potent forward line. However they played in a physically draining match last week while the Roos have won 2 of the last 3 encounters against Hawthorn including when it mattered most in that semi final. I really think the Hawks may struggle physically and I think the Roos are again underrated by the bookies and most footy followers. They are a huge chance to win the match, but the Hawks should win a lot more than they lose this year and backing against them is risky. Being Round 3 there is still much water that is yet to flow under the bridge and getting a gauge on all the teams is still difficult, the Kangaroos in particular.

The Hawks are hard workers and they run forward to attack and run back to defend which takes its toll physically. The Roos pride themselves on winning contested situations with hard bodies like Harris, Simpson, Pratt around the ball and keeping up the defensive pressure which is the way to beat a run and carry team - pressure them into making errors. The Roos suffocated them in that Semi-Final last year and I expect something similar again.

This game could go either way and I’m really feeling the Roos are quietly confident and happy to be underdogs, despite the revenge factor for Hawthorn. The Hawks are missing Crawford, Dew, Croad, Williams while the Roos are missing Sinclair and Smith. Very difficult to pick but I’ll go with the slight outsider in the Kangaroos to weather the likely storm and either win the match or be in it till the last kick.



Pick : Kangaroos +18.5
Odds : 1.72
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-05
Match Result : 86-102
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