St.Kilda v Western Bulldogs Friday Night Telstra Dome

Two of the four unbeaten teams after 2 rounds play against each other on Friday Night at Telstra Dome, which is the home ground for both these teams though tonight it is a Bulldogs home game.

The Bulldogs have so far beaten Adelaide in round 1, a match they were lucky to get away with but a huge performance from Brad Johnson in his 300th match got them over the line, while last week they played against the hapless Melbourne therefore cruising to a 95 point victory.

As expected this season, the Bulldogs run and carry using their midfield speed to good advantage and post high scores with lots of forward 50 entries. They say they have worked on their defensive pressure skills; however that didn’t show against Adelaide, and seemed better than it was last week thanks to Melbourne’s horrible skill errors. If they really have improved particularly around the stoppages then this match will be the match they will need to apply it.

St.Kilda with wins against the Swans and a comfortable win last week against Carlton have been gifted their first 5 matches at Telstra Dome this season where they have an imposing record. They brought in 4 players from other clubs this season (King, Schneider, Charlie Gardiner and Sean Dempster) as well as having the services of ruckman Michael Gardiner for the first time and all apart from Dempster have played and have fitted in like they’ve been playing with St.Kilda all their lives. Throw in a fit Koschitzke, Gehrig, Ball, Hayes, X.Clarke and Max Hudghton and a team that looks good on paper will actually start performing to their potential. And they are close to doing just that. Last week they didn’t seem to slip out of second gear yet were 58 points up with 2 minutes to go; Carlton kicked 3 goals in the last 2 minutes to add some respectability.

This match should be a great one tonight, both teams are full of confidence the Bulldogs will look to use their speed advantage in the midfield to outrun the Saints and continually change up the forward line mix with players like Johnson, Welsh, Akermanis, Hahn, Murphy, Giansiracusa, Hill and Minson spending time up forward. The Saints will be relying on their defensive pressure around the stoppages to either get clean takeaways or force turnovers and hurt the Bulldogs on the rebound similar to Adelaide in the Bulldogs first match of the season. The Bulldogs will likely be forced out wide and the Saints will get numbers back which will mean finding a target inside 50 difficult for the Bulldog midfield. The difference between that match and this one is the goal kicking options the Saints have that the Bulldogs will struggle to match up on. This is a major problem for the Bulldogs and should be the difference.

When the Bulldogs get the ball, everyone starts running forward. They have lots of quick runners in the midfield and provided they don’t turn the ball over will get it into their forward 50 fairly quickly. Of course they still don’t really have any tall targets up forward so they will be relying on precision passes to their smaller quicker forwards like Johnson, Aker, Murphy and Welsh. This works fine when there is no pressure on the ball carrier. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs the Saints are fast becoming the one of the best pressuring teams in the competition and more likely than not will cause plenty of turnovers in tonight’s match. Of course if the Bulldogs turn it over in the midfield, the Saints will rebound quickly and get the ball to their tall key forwards who have both height and strength advantage against their Bulldog defenders. It’s Russian roulette for the Bulldogs, they need to run through the middle of the ground and get the ball in quickly so they can make the most of their opportunities. This will be the key to them winning this match.

So who will make the most of their forward line opportunities? More than likely I would think St.Kilda as they have better mismatches with their Bulldog opponents and the Bulldogs midfield won’t flood back to help them out. Lake will likely play on Gehrig which should be a good battle while Wight will likely go to Koschitzke - which is the real worry match-up for the Bulldogs. St.Kilda will more than likely isolate this match-up; Koschitzke will play from the goal-square to really put the pressure on the young defender. Morris and Hargrave will play on Riewoldt and Milne. Riewoldt and Gehrig have both enjoyed success against the Bulldogs of late in front of goal, while the Saints in general haven’t lost to the Bulldogs in the last 5 matches they have played against them 4 at Telstra Dome, 1 at the MCG. Up the other end, the Dogs will rely on the speed of players like Johnson, Murphy, and Aker on the lead but they need plenty of quality ball coming from the midfield. They lack body strength, which the Saints also do down back without Maguire so a potential weakness for the Saints will not be exploited. I’m not sure what the Saints will do match-up wise; Blake is a good chance to pick up Johnson, Hudghton on Welsh and Gilbert on Murphy while Leigh Fisher or Gram may end up with Akermanis. The Dogs do have speed on their side, but if they Saints can get numbers back and force the Bulldogs wide through midfield pressure the Dogs will find it hard to hit a target going forward and speed will count for nothing. For the Bulldogs to kick a winning score, their midfield need to find space and show a high level of skill when delivering into the forward line. This could happen, but the evidence from their round 1 clash with Adelaide who pressured well showed that lots of skill errors and turnovers are likely.

I think both teams have improved their lists this season and at this stage are both not far off full strength (Maguire, Baker for the Saints and Williams, Everitt, Higgins for the Bulldogs will miss), both will be full of confidence which should make for an entertaining match. I think the Saints hold the edge as long as they keep up the defensive pressure which they have for all 7 games so far this year and the advantage up forward means I will take them to win. The Bulldogs are a better team than the Carlton team the Saints played last week.

Last season, 130 matches were decided by under 39.5 points, 52 by over that margin, Geelong accounting for 13 which is a quarter of those overs. The line for this match is 15.5. Last season, 141 matches were decided by over 15.5 points, 41 under. Clearly most matches are won (unless you are Geelong) by between 10 and 40 points. Most matches decided by over 40 points involved Geelong winning or injury riddled teams struggling towards the end of the year (in the first 10 rounds last year it was 60-20 for matches decided by over 40 points. 70-32 after that mark when teams start to struggle both injury and motivation wise.) So far this year, it is 8-8 for matches decided by under 39.5 points. That is well out of proportion for such a close competition and will not continue. We haven't been that good with picking the margins so far and the line of -15.5 is very tempting but we've got 2 motivated teams, playing well and we can get odds of 2.25 for the margin rather than the 1.91 for the line. I think both have an equal chance of occuring so we'll take the better odds offered for the Saints to win but the Bulldogs to keep it close with a margin of under 39.5.



Pick : St.Kilda by 1-39 points
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-04-04
Match Result : 125-87
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