Tricky match this one, but i will have to go on the Spurs side this time, as i have been waiting for the playoffs to get close enough to bet on them. This is mainly because they will have to sharpen their play in these final 10 matches, as to be ready for the playoff clashes in full form.

Spurs are 2nd in the Western Conference, but only 3 games ahead of the 4th spot, so their home advantage is not secured yet. Moreover, they would like a seat in the top 2 as to have an easier opponent in the first round, as the Rockets or Suns would be much more dangerous in a series than Nuggets or Warriors. I am stating this because i believe the Mavericks without Dirk have slim chances of qualifying. Spurs are good away, but at home is where they are excellent, winning 31 of their 37 games so far, and 11 of their last 12. After defeating Dallas and Orlando away, they returned in San Antonio for a 4 game home stand, winning against Clippers, Timberwolves and Rockets without problems in the first three. Tony Parker seems to be getting back in his MVP form lately, and he will be, along with Duncan, the main weapons against this running team, GS Warriors.

Warriors are one game behind Nuggets and Mavericks for the 8th spot race, and tonight won't be their night to tie them. But some h2h games against those 2 will come and they will have their chances. Warriors are alternating wins and defeats, as you never know what they will do on the field, as they rely a lot on their shooting sharpness, and less on tactical and defensive play. In their last 5 games away, they've lost at the Suns by 8 points, then went to Sacramento and lost by 17 points, followed by 2 wins against the LA teams, but Clippers are very weak and Lakers were in a downfall of form, and finally lost by 7 in Denver in an important match for the playoffs.

The teams met twice this season:

- in December, the Warriors won 96-84 in a bad shooting game (both under 40%), but Duncan did not play and his absence was felt deeply;

- in January, the Warriors won again 130-121 in overtime, with the hosts shooting 51% and the Spurs 45%

Now the game will be in San Antonio, where the Spurs have shown some great killer instinct this season and history shows 19 straight home wins for the Spurs by an average of 17.2 points. This is a horrible history for the Warriors, but it is not always relevant. Still, in the last three season they've lost by DD and this is somehow relevant. No injury worries on any of the sides, but with Duncan in the field and Spurs playing at home, i believe the Warriors are in for a hard knockout tonight. Spurs defense has been quite efficient of late, keeping their last 4 adversaries under 90 points, and against tough defensive teams, the Warriors have shown difficulties this season. Celtics, Pistons or Mavericks(with Dirk) all defeated them by 20 points or more, and tonight i believe the Spurs can win by DD. Still, the motivation is on the Warriors side, so i would better keep the stakes at a medium level, as one can never know when they will get a great shooting day, but i doubt they can win nonetheless. Good luck.

Pick : Spurs -8
Odds : 1.90
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Fonbet
Date : 2008-04-02
Match Result : 116-92
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