The Phoenix Suns host the Denver Nuggets tonight in one of the crucial games for Western playoff qualification. The Suns are on 5th spot, 4 games above the line, and by the way they've played lately their playoff spot is secure. Still, they will try to go as high as possible in the standings to ensure the home advantage in the playoffs. The Nuggets are tied with the Warriors and the Mavericks and these three are battling for 2 spots in the playoffs. The Nuggets have made an important firs t two steps by beating GS and Dallas in their last 2 at home, but now they will play away where they are significantly weaker, and against an in-form team that have won 5 in a row in Phoenix. But in such a match, where accuracy is the decisive factor, as both teams are very offensive and like fast plays, i wouldn't dare take any of the teams to cover. This is mainly because the hosts are a bit better but have rather secured their spot, while the visitors are more motivated and have great shooters. This is why i would rather take Amare Stoudamire to score 28 points or more tonight for the following reasons:

- in the 137-115 win in Phoenix, he had 20 points in only 23 minutes, and you have to consider Marion was playing and scored 27 points in that match, while Shaq is not so productive

- in the 113-126 defeat in Denver, he had 22 points in 29 minutes

Considering he gets at least 35 minutes, he will certainly be the main weapon of the Suns tonight. In his last 5 games, he had the following performances:

- 38 points against the Rockets

- 33 points against the Pistons

- 32 points against the Celtics

- 22 points against the 76ers, but only played 31 minutes

- 33 points against the Nets

Now you can see that against some good defensive teams such as Celtics, Pistons, 76ers and even Rockets, he has had some very nice performances. In the two h2h meetings he shot very accurately, more than 60% in each one, but did not get enough minutes to make his points.

Tonight, as in his last matches except the 76ers one, where they had a comfortable lead and he was not useful on the field all game, i expect him to play normal time. In this case, i have no doubt he will score at least 30 points, as the matches between these teams are always fast and with high scores. But these fast games also bring a lot of fatigue, and this is why i only go medium on it, as i am not certain of his total time on the field tonight. Good luck.

Pick : Amare Stoudamire over 27.5 points
Odds : 1.75
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Triobet
Date : 2008-03-31
Match Result : 41 Points
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