Real Madrid host Sevilla in the final match of this round. Barcelona lost at Betis, so the Real are not under any huge pressure, but they are now only 3 points above Villareal, with the direct result advantage, while Villareal beat Atletico, so Sevilla have a chance to come 2 points off the last CL spot. Motivation on both sides in this match, but regarding the current form, i would say the visitors have the upper hand.

Real have lost 2 of their last 3 home games, against Valencia and Getafe, these being their only negative results at home this season. Still, without Ruud in the attack and with Sneijder and their wingers in very bad form, Real seems like a weaker team towards the end of the season.

Sevilla have won 5 of their last 7 games, the only defeats coming against Deportivo and Atletico. Still, after their knockout from the CL, they are running for that last CL spot, and with Atletico's defeat, they have the opportunity and thus the incentive tonight.

For Real, Robben will start on Robinho's spot, but his form hasn't been any good lately. Pepe is unavailable, while Baptista will probably not be among the starters. For Sevilla, the only problem is Escude's unavailability.

Sevilla won the first match 2-0, but tonight the match will be much more open in my opinion. History shows 9 of their last 10 games in Primera being over 2.5 goals. This season the results were the following:

03.11.2007 SPA 1 Sevilla - Real M. 2:0

19.08.2007 SPA SC Real M. - Sevilla 3:5

11.08.2007 SPA SC Sevilla - Real M. 1:0

Sevilla in their last 5 away have a GD of 11-9, which means 4 goals/match, while Real, in their last 5 at home have a GD of 12-7, which is almost 4 per match. With their rather bad defenses of late, both teams will most likely concede at least a goal. Real will be using a 4-2-3-1 formation, while Sevilla will be using their classic 4-2-2 formation. I believe we can see 4-5 goals tonight, and i expect a score like 2-2 or 2-3. So i will be backing the Sevilla DNB with medium stakes and the over 3 goals high stakes, as i absolutely think there will be at least 3 tonight. Good luck.



Pick : Sevilla DNB
Odds : 3.30
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Betsson
Date : 2008-03-30
Match Result : 3-1
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