Apologies for the late postings I will endeavour to get them up earlier from next week on.

Well picking the winner is one thing, choosing the right bet is something else and unfortunately yesterday we missed on margins. The Bulldogs smashed Melbourne, Adelaide smashed West Coast while the Saints won by half a point too much 40, we needed them at fewer than 39.5. A little unlucky, but that is betting!

Today’s match between Geelong and Essendon offer us a bit of value I feel. Of course Geelong was the dominant team last year winning the Premiership, while the Bombers finished well out of the finals. It is unlikely that Geelong will be so dominant again this year, while the Bombers are young, quick and refreshed with a new coach and new direction after parting with decade long coach Kevin Sheedy.

Last week, Geelong controlled their match against Port Adelaide in the Grand Final re-match over in Adelaide, but they let Port back in the match in the last quarter and eventually won by 9 points. Essendon were super impressive against the Kangaroos and despite losing forward Scott Lucas early in the game, they blew North Melbourne out of the water and cruised to an easy victory. The Kangaroos lacked motivation and speed as the young Bombers just ran right past them in the last half. Geelong however will be a different proposition.

Geelong is a well disciplined team with an airtight defence, strong and quick in the midfield and many goal-kicking options up forward. The Bombers have pace and enthusiasm in the midfield but against Geelong who are so good at applying defensive pressure the Bombers youngsters will not get the room they got last week against a lifeless North Melbourne.

The big loss for Essendon is Scott Lucas. He will be out until halfway through the year with a knee injury and against the top teams missing a top 3 player, with experience who is a goal kicker and a big body leaves them vulnerable. Matthew Lloyd was great last week but against Scarlett with help from Harley and Milburn I can’t see him dominating and kicking many goals particularly given the midfield will be more in Geelong’s control. I was impressed with Essendon last week, but Geelong will be too much for the young Bombers.

In terms of a margin, the line for this match is set at 21.5 which for me is a little low, more due to Essendon’s performance last week. Last year Geelong was 19-2 in wins by over 15.5 points, and 13-8 in wins by over 39.5 points.

Geelong to win -21.5



Pick : Geelong -21.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-03-30
Match Result : 150-51
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

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