St.Kilda v Carlton Telstra Dome

The second match on Saturday Night involves the Saints and Carlton at Telstra Dome in Melbourne.

Last week, the Saints won by 2 points against Sydney at this ground. It wasn’t a pretty match to watch as both teams played extra men in defence and it turned into a defensive slog. The Saints had many opportunities throughout the match and could have easily won by more, as it turned out they were lucky to get away with it. They will be a top 4 team this year but they need to be more attacking than last week’s effort, for while they have a good defence their forward line and midfield are one of the strongest in the league and they need to take better advantage of that.

Carlton lost last week to Richmond, though they have strengthened their team with the return of Brad Fisher up forward, Hampson in the ruck and young Russell in the midfield. It is hard to know how the young Blues will react to last week, the game was built up a fair bit by both clubs particularly Carlton yet they lost which could feel like a bit of a letdown. Having said that I don’t expect too many thrashings this year, they will improve and be much more competitive thanks to Judd, Stevens, Murphy, and Gibbs.

For this match, the Saints have just about everywhere covered. They have a backline to contain Fevola and Fisher, their midfield is slightly ahead but should be given plenty of opportunities to win the ball thanks to King and Gardiner in the ruck who may well be become the most formidable ruck combination in the league, while up forward they will more than stretch the Blues defence. Fraser Gehrig is back joining Riewoldt and Koschitzke up forward matched up with Carlton’s defensive talls - Jamison, Thornton and Waite who will find it a tough night. The Saints will win the midfield battle and the match.

Last year the Saints only won 1 game by over 39.5 points in 11 wins. So far in their 5 matches including the pre-season ALL have been won by under that margin. Carlton will not pressure like Sydney did last week while the Saints will pressure hard and force plenty of turnovers meaning a 40+ point win is possible. The Saints kicking for goal has not been good and I’m hoping that will continue tonight and ensure the Saints win but under the 40 point margin. Those statistics are hard to back against: 16-1 wins by under 40 points. They have the ability this year though to blow teams out if they are more attacking but right now we have to go with the reality and not the potential.



Pick : St.Kilda by under 39.5 points
Odds : 2.20
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : 10bet
Date : 2008-03-29
Match Result : 125-85
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