Adelaide v West Coast in Adelaide

Adelaide last week were unlucky against the Bulldogs, it was a free flowing high-scoring match as expected and it came down to the last kick with Nathan Bock missing a shot from 45 metres out on a decent angle to win the game. Adelaide were what I expected last week, more open attacking style of play but retaining the defensive pressure they have been known for over the past few seasons. They are trying to incorporate some younger talent and build for the future yet are trying to remain super-competitive at the same time, a tough thing to do. You know what you will get with the Crows this year they will give solid performances each week, they lack a real goal kicking forward and an extra top midfielder though and this will find them out against the better teams.

The Eagles shot out of the blocks last week against the Lions and despite being outscored in the last 3 quarters, won by 16 points. They still have a lot of talent in the midfield despite losing Cousins and Judd in the off-season and if the likes of Kerr, Embley, Priddis, Braun, Fletcher and Stenglein can stay injury free they will be there abouts come the finals.

Both teams have solid defences and even though the Crows will be looking to attack, I see it being more of a defensive struggle. Both teams are fairly evenly matched however the one spot where there is a clear winner is in the ruck. Dean Cox and Mark Seaby for the Eagles will be too good for young Griffin and this is where the Eagles can find their advantage. Up forward, the Eagles will miss young LeCras so Wirrpanda may end up spending more time up forward again like last week. Lynch and Hansen can be held by Rutten, Bock, Bassett etc while up the other end Burton, McGregor, Tippett are well-covered by Glass, Hunter and Brett Jones. I would expect to find Hunter and Bock up forward at some stage for their respective teams.

Since 2005, these teams have played 6 matches and 5 have ended in the match being decided by less than 24 points. The Eagles have won all of the previous 5 encounters, including 3 in Adelaide, all close matches, but the Eagles have been the dominant team in the league during that run and would hold similar records against most clubs.

My bet for this match is for either team to win by under 24.5 points; as writing off the Crows at home is not the done thing, while I can’t see either team breaking away and winning comfortably.



Pick : Either team by under 24.5 points
Odds : 2.00
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-03-29
Match Result : 133-57
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