Fremantle v Hawthorn, Subiaco Oval

Saturday night Oz time the Fremantle Dockers take on Hawthorn who are coming off a 104 point thrashing of Melbourne in Round 1. The betting for this match is just about dead-set even.

Last week Fremantle were very disappointing in the last quarter against Collingwood, they looked tired and slow and the Magpies ran all over the top of them. They have been widely criticised this week by the media and supporters for picking a team that was ‘too old’ meaning players like Shaun McManus, Matthew Carr, Mark Johnson, Dean Solomon and too slow; players such as Ryan Crowley, David Mundy and the above mentioned. It certainly showed in the last quarter.

Despite having some top talent up forward, whenever the Dockers were able to win the ball in the midfield their forwards were beaten comfortably including Captain Matthew Pavlich who struggled against first gamer Nathan Brown. Chris Tarrant was more disappointing and needs a big season to shake the over-rated tag that could almost be too hard now to shake, if that made any sense.

Fremantle lost their best midfielder in Paul Hasleby before the season with a knee injury, while Peter Bell is aging and is pre-occupied with other business interests and Crowley, Matthew Carr, Josh Carr and McManus lack pace. With Black out for this match, it will be up to first round draft pick Rhys Palmer and the potential of Schammer, Peake and Headland to add the bite and fresh injection of pace to the midfield. So far Headland has been great this year, but he needs help.

The other issue I saw for Fremantle last week is their lack of strength and height in defence, particularly when Luke McPharlin moves up forward. Too often last week Freo defenders were caught up in a one-on-one contest and Grover, Johnson, Dodd, Mundy just don’t have the strength against strong forwards such as Rocca last week.

Unfortunately it won’t get much easier this week with Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Tim Boyle to match-up on.

The Hawks were very efficient last week, beating the demons by 104 points. They are young and exciting and should push for a top 4 spot this year. Their new recruits did more than just fit in, they were best players. Youngsters Cyril Rioli and Cameron Stokes looked right at home, while former Port player Stuart Dew returning to football after 2 years in retirement was outstanding. Last week the team ran hard, pressured well and had double the amount of scoring shots as Melbourne; however it is only round 1 and important to not get over enthused about one team or another. Last year Geelong lost 3 of their first 5 matches yet went on to win the premiership winning 19 of their last 20 matches, most by over 5 goals and the Grand Final by over 100 points.

The Hawks welcome back Luke Hodge and Campbell Brown from suspension, two big gains however they lose Trent Croad arguably a bigger loss as it leaves the Hawthorn defence small against a rebounding Matthew Pavlich who rarely plays 2 bad games in a row, Tarrant and likely McPharlin at some stage. The Hawks have the advantage in the midfield with Hodge back and Black, Hasleby missing for the Dockers who have brought in 3 youngsters including the pacy Rhys Palmer.

Hawthorn have a team full of runners and the wide-open ground that Subiaco is will suit them more than the home team who still look a trifle slow around the middle. Hawthorn are the stronger team for me, however it is a tough road trip to Perth and the Dockers are playing in front of their home crowd and will be desperate for a better showing than last week. The last time these two teams met, Adam Campbell was the leading goal scorer for Freo and Hasleby and Black collected the most touches in a 16 point win at Subiaco. None of these players will be playing tonight.

I am leaning towards Hawthorn as they are the better team, but without Croad they lack an adequate match-up for Pavlich. I feel a confident Hawks unit will be tough to beat but I expect the Dockers to keep it close. A very hard match to pick but medium stakes on Hawthorn 1-39 points.



Pick : Hawthorn under 39.5 points
Odds : 2.55
Stake : 5 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-03-29
Match Result : 97-112
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