Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, MCG

Well it wasn’t a great start to the year for Melbourne as they lost by 104 points to Hawthorn last Sunday. They played just as badly as the score line suggests. Melbourne are having just as much trouble off the field, they are struggling for money, moving training bases and losing members during what will be a re-building year involving plenty of losses on the field. There doesn’t seem to be much heart at the club and they played pretty un-inspired football last week.

For me the Demons lack pace through the midfield, are still relying on the age-weary bodies of Neitz and Robertson to kick their goals, are trying to settle in to a new game-plan with a new untried coach and just have too many players with unfulfilled potential. I was also unconvinced of the young ones such as Weetra, Pettard, Morton and Newton, while Yze looks disinterested, Robbo seems distracted with his burgeoning media career and Bruce and White wonder if they will ever see finals football again, let alone a Grand Final. Unfortunately in 5 matches including all pre-season games, the Demons have yet to win one and while all of this is coming from just one week of regular season football, I can’t see much that will turn it around.

The Bulldogs escaped with a 4 point victory last week against the Crows, with Brad Johnson in his 300th match taking it upon himself to carry the team over the line. It was a close match and expectedly high scoring; the Bulldogs apply next to no pressure and play a free running game which is very high-risk as turnovers usually result in free opposition men and therefore opposition goals. Scott Welsh was good for them up forward and should be another welcome scoring option next to Brad Johnson.

For this match the Bulldogs have kept their team the same, while Melbourne has brought in Clint Bartram, Lynden Dunn and Colin Sylvia for Moloney, Pettard and Yze. Both teams lack strong defensive options, Lake-Neitz will be a good battle, while the Demons’ small defence is suited to the Bulldogs small forward line. The Demons do have plenty of goal-scoring options – Neitz, Robertson, Miller, Dunn, Davey, Bruce, and Green however getting the ball up there enough could well be the issue. The Bulldogs will lap up playing against teams who let them run and fail to pressure and although the Demons will lift in this area from their round 1 performance, the Bulldogs have too many options and too much speed through the middle. I would expect over 50 inside 50 entries each and another likely high-scoring match. The forecast for Melbourne is for a windy day and possible showers though could limit the scoring though this will more than likely help us with our bet. The Bulldogs failed to win two games in a row all year last year, which has been spoken about, so clearly the motivation is there to really put all memory of 2007 to bed with their second win in a row.

The Bulldogs have winners just about all over the ground, and for me they will win the match. The only question is by how much? Well last year the Bulldogs won 9 games, and all 9 of them were by less than 40 points, including a close 6 point match with Melbourne. They are 18-5 in wins by fewer than 40 points over the last 2 seasons. Melbourne will not be as bad as last week; there will be high motivation on their behalf to make amends as it is still early on in the season so I can’t see a win by over 50 points for the Bulldogs and hopefully it stays under 40.



My bet for this match with medium/high stakes is for the Bulldogs to win by less than 39.5 points.



Pick : Bulldogs under 39.5
Odds : 2.25
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Centrebet
Date : 2008-03-29
Match Result : 66-161
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