The first match of Round 2 sees the Brisbane Lions take on Collingwood at the Gabba on Friday Night.

Collingwood were impressive in round 1, accounting for Fremantle by 26 points at their home ground, the MCG. The scores were tight all game, but a quick burst of magpie goals at the beginning of the last quarter and a tired-looking Fremantle side ensured an easy victory. Unfortunately they lost young forward Sean Rusling to another likely season ending injury. Anthony Rocca more than made up the slack, kicking 6 goals, while youngsters Wood in the ruck and Nathan Brown in defence were super impressive. They are a solid team Collingwood, with all their 15 wins last year coming by under 40 points, and 9 of their 10 losses also coming under 40 points. The only match they lost by a lot was against the Brisbane Lions at the MCG - by 96 points! when the lions were hot, amazing given the lions missed a finals spot by a few games, yet Collingwood just about made it to the Grand Final.

The Lions played in hot conditions last week in the longest road trip on the AFL calendar, losing to West Coast by 16 points. They were blown out of the water in the first quarter as West Coast piled on the first 6 goals of the match. However from there on in the Lions outscored the Eagles 68-54 in the last 3 quarters. It wasn’t a high scoring match, but tough for the players as both teams like to run the ball with a high ratio of handballs to kicks and that takes its toll on a hot day/night. With just a 6 day break, the Lions won’t be as fresh as Collingwood; however they have arguably the best player in the competition in Jonathon Brown who kicked 6 goals last week against one of the best full backs in the league in Darren Glass.

This is a super hard match to pick – Brisbane are at home, searching for their first win and Collingwood will struggle to find an adequate match-up for Jonathon Brown. Meanwhile Collingwood will want to make-up for the big loss they suffered at the hands of the Lions the last time they met, the lions may be missing key midfielder Jed Adcock as well as having a short recovery period from a physically tough road trip.

The Magpies regain skipper Scott Burns and midfielder Ben Johnson, which will strengthen up the midfield, while the Lions have brought in a few youngsters Proud, Sherman and Henderson for Robbie Copeland, Troy Selwood and Cheynee Stiller.

I think the Magpies are a huge chance in this match and last season in 25 games, 18 of them ended with either Collingwood winning or losing by 24 points or under. Backing against the Brisbane Lions at home however is risky particularly given they will be motivated for their first win of the season. I checked the weather for tonight’s match, and the ground will likely be soft underfoot at best, as Brisbane has had a decent amount of rain and more is forecast for the afternoon, meaning there is a fair chance of a tight, lower scoring match.

My tip therefore for this match is either team to win by under 24.5 points. I know I’m not really sticking my neck out for one team or the other, but I see this as the best bet for this match, with medium stakes. It is still only round 2 and teams are sorting themselves out, and there was nothing to suggest in round 1 that either team have changed much from the last half of last year.

It should be a close entertaining match between 2 motivated teams.



Pick : Either Team under 24.5 Points
Odds : 1.96
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-03-28
Match Result : 96-94
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