Value! I´m going to back here the highflying Tonbridge Angels, the in-form team of the league. They host the champions from Chelmsford. The Essex side need only 3 points out of their last 5 games to celebrate the promotion. I guess, they got to wait until April 5th, when they host Ramsgate at the New Writtle Street. Chelmsford is 1. with a 24-8-5 record, 12 points in clear of AFC Wimbledon. Their away record is pretty impressive, 10-4-4, but the last performances were not champions-like, a 0-0 at home vs. Heybridge (15. with 3-7-9 away) and a lucky 1-0 win (goal in the 87. minute) at Maidstone (16. with 7-3-8 at home). If they repeat such performances, they will loose at Tonbridge, no doubt. As I rate a Chelmsford win not higher than 25%, there is pretty much value in this pick. I will also try Angels win @3.25 Skybet.

The homepage of the Tonbridge Angels may not be up to date, but their recent results are extraordinary good. Three month ago they lost 1-5 at home vs. Horsham being 20. in the table. Today we can find them at 7., since the Boxing day they manage to collect 33 points, 10-3-1, 5-1-0 at home and 5-2-1 away, 8 of 10 wins were with 2 and more goals, they scored exactly 40 goals in the last 3 months. If any team is able to beat Chelmsford, it has to be Tonbridge.

As I´m quite sure, that the promotion-party in Chelmsford is prolonged till next week (or month), I take this pick with high stakes.

Pick : Tonbridge win or draw
Odds : 1.73
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Paddy Power
Date : 2008-03-29
Match Result : 0-1
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