The Denver Nuggets host the Dallas Mavericks in a real playoff survival clash.

The Denver Nuggets are 9th in the Western Conference, 1/2 games behind GS Warriors and also 2 games behind 7th placed Dallas MAvericks. The Nuggets are coming after a 5-game road trip: they've lost the first two against Pistons and Philly, but won the following three against Nets, Raptors and Grizzlies. but at home is where they are very powerful, and their last 5 there show this exactly: 5 of 5 wins against Suns, Spurs, Grizzlies, Raptors and Supersonics, all by DD. The Nuggets are throwing very precisely lately, Iverson and Anthony being in excellent form, and i really think they can go all the way in these last 12 games.

Dallas Mavericks as i said before are 7th, but only 2 games above the Nuggets, and in my opinion, they are in terrible danger of missing the playoffs, as star Dirk Nowitzky is out. After this match, the Mavericks will be going to GS in another life-or-death duel, followed by a trip to the Clippers, and a home game against GS again. This home and home will probably decide the playoff position. Dallas will face Lakers, Suns, Jazz and Hornets, which is an incredibly difficult end-season schedule. This is why i rate the Nuggets more probable to go through, and with a clear win tonight, they will have the upper hand. Nuggets will face GS twice, Suns twice, Jazz and Rockets, which in my opinion will be much easier than Mavericks' match-ups. GS will have another tough schedule, playing Dallas twice, Nuggets twice, Spurs and Hornets, so these h2h clashes with Nuggets and Mavericks will be of crucial importance.

The Mavericks are coming off a 4-game home streak, in which they've lost 3 against Spurs, Celtics and Lakers, and won the last one against Clippers. Nowitzki's absence is clearly affecting the team, and J. Kidd cannot unite the team and take them through in my opinion.

The teams met twice this season, both times in Dallas and the results were the following:

- 109-122 on December 6th. Nowitzki had 32 points and 12 rebounds, but the Nuggets were better and thanks to Iverson's 35 points and 12 assists they comfortably won that game

- 90-85 on January 27th. Nowitzki again had a great performance, 32 points and 11 rebounds, but Carmelo Anthony did not play in that one, with him on the field the Mavericks could have lost the second home game to the Nuggets.

Now the Nuggets are home where they really give the best, while Dallas are playing away, where they are average. Their star player will not be in the field tonight, and without him, i just don't see the Mavericks standing a chance against these extremely motivated home Nuggets. I believe they can win by 10-15 points this one and i will be betting accordingly.

It's not smart to bet against Divol, but this one i just have to take in these circumstances. Good luck.

Pick : Nuggets -8
Odds : 1.94
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Canbet
Date : 2008-03-28
Match Result : 118-105
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