Houston Rockets host the Sacramento Kings.

Rockets are on a negative streak at the moment, losing 3 of last 4, against Celtics, Hornets and Suns. Tonight they hope to bounce back as, they have fallen in the standings of the Western Conference and are now only 4 games above the Nuggets who desperately chase the last playoff spot. The Kings are lower table team in the West this season. They've won their last 3 at home against Trailblazers, Raptors and Warriors, while the last 3 away were defeats, against Suns, Spurs and surprisingly, in the last match, against the poor Grizzlies. h2h this season is balanced, Kings winning at home 107-99 and Rockets winning in Houston 89-87. Considering Houston's decreasing form and the h2h this season, i wouldn't dare take the Rockets -11.5, but neither would i dare taking the Kings to cover, as they have lost to poor Grizzlies. So, the best thing is to take someone to over-perform tonight in my opinion. And since T-Mac has been a bit lower in his shooting recently, i would rather go for Kevin Martin from the Kings.

The main reason is that the Kings have big injury problems, and perhaps this is why they were defeated by Grizzlies. Ron Artest(20.2 points/game), Beno Udrih(12.9 points/game) and Brad Miller(13.7 points/game) are injured. So 3 of the King's 4 top scorers are not going to play. So guess who will take over the shooting responsibilities? Kevin Martin, yes.

He is averaging 23.1 points/game this season and the simple fact that there is an offer for him only to reach his average tonight is a major gift in my opinion.

After a minor injury 15 days ago, he had an amazing game against the Timberwolves, scoring 48 points. Than he had 21 points against the Lakers, but his injury was back, so in the following two games he played under 30 minutes and did not have any major role in team. But in the last 4 games, he was back at full potential, and he had the following performances:

- 32 points against the Raptors while shooting 9 of 21

- 34 points against the Warriors while shooting 13 of 22

- 20 points against the Spurs while shooting 2 of 12

- 29 points against the Grizzlies while shooting 8 of 24

Except the Spurs game, where the defense of the adversaries was all on him and he also had a bad shooting day, but still made 20 points, in all the other games he had excellent performances. In the last game it was the first time all the other 3 top shooter were out, and he had more balls than usual, making more basket attempts, being fouled more, and despite his 33% shooting, still was very close to the 30 points line.

Against the Rockets this season, he had the following performances:

- in the 107-99 win, he had 26 points while shooting 8 of 20, but Artest was also playing and got 26 points, so tonight it will be better for sure

- in the 87-89 defeat, he had 12 points while shooting 3 of 9, but he only played 30 minutes and Artest had 30 points, while Bibby was also present scoring 14

Tonight the circumstances are totally different. He is the only remaining important player in the Kings lineup, and considering this, and his latest performances, it would be really stupid to assume that he will be below his average. Moreover, the Rockets play faster and more open without Yao Ming, and this is certainly a boots for this kind of bet. Considering he shoots at least 40%, i believe Kevin Martin will score more than 30 points tonight. Good luck.

Pick : Kevin Martin over 23 points
Odds : 1.85
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Betway
Date : 2008-03-25
Match Result : 18 Points
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