St.Kilda v Sydney Telstra Dome, Melbourne

St.Kilda Saints play the Sydney Swans on Saturday Night Oz time in what should be a tough defensive match. The Saints are the pre-season ‘buzz’ team; they won the pre-season competition, have added depth and premiership experience to their list for next to nothing, and a change in conditioning coaches (ironically poached from the Swans who had an amazingly good run with injuries for the past three or so seasons) will hopefully mean the Saints’ injury curse is behind them. Together with a super talented list and improving youngsters the Saints this season should be a contender for Geelong’s crown.

Sydney on the other hand is seen to be heading in the opposite direction. Their star players are ageing, a long term injury to defender Nick Malceski and few youngsters seen to be coming through have many tipping a slide out of the finals for the first time since 2001. They do however have one major constant and that is the brilliance of coach Paul Roos. For years it has been perceived Sydney have over-achieved with a team few on stars, but big on work rate and heart. Paul Roos’ defensive minded game plan is the glue, it doesn’t require a bunch of star players to perform each week, each player has their role and they stick to it. All teams have their star players and the Swans are no exception; Adam Goodes, Barry Hall, Michael O’Loughlin, and defender Leo Barry are genuine stars, but the less fashionable hard workers; Amon Buchanen, Lewis Roberts-Thomsen, Ryan O’Keefe, Captain Brett Kirk and Jude Bolton amongst others are the real key to the success of Roos’ game plan.

For this match, I see a lower scoring affair with Saints coach Ross Lyon, a former assistant to Paul Roos imparting a similar more defensive minded game-style on his team since he took over last year. The Saints are close to full-strength, while the Swans are missing ruckman Peter Everitt and defender Malceski who is likely out for the season. The Swans are blooding some young midfielders in Moore, Bird and Jack who haven’t much experience which will really be telling tonight with the Saints awesome tackling pressure they displayed throughout the pre-season matches.

The Saints have a great record at their home field Telstra Dome - 36 wins, 11 losses and 1 draw over the past 4 seasons, and they are 2-0 against Sydney there and 4-3 overall against the Swans who have been a top 4 team for the past 4 seasons. The Saints have loaded up their team with talls (Gardiner, King, Koschitzke, Gehrig, Riewoldt) and with that talented bunch should stretch the Swans undersized defence of Barry, Craig Bolton, Richards and Roberts-Thomsen. In the midfield the Saints should have too much class with Hayes, Harvey, Ball, Dal Santo, Montagna all elite midfielders and great support from new recruit Adam Schneider, Xavier Clarke and youngsters Geary and Jones. While the Swans have some good options up forward the Saints should be able to cover them on their home field.

If they are looking for a top 4 finish this year, the Saints should be just about impenetrable at their home ground and I see them winning this match fairly comfortably.

Saints to win and cover.



Pick : St.Kilda -16.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : SportingBet
Date : 2008-03-22
Match Result : 51-49
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