I just have to try this one although it may not be good idea to bet on this clash :)

First match of the Semi Finals, incredible clash of Salavat Yulaev Ufa and Ak Bars Kazan.

Although Kazan had bad season, in last two months they incredibly improved, managing to come to 7th place (at one point they were 19th). They were red hot in recent months having won 22 of 26 games at one point. In Play-off they've been exceptional, easily won MVD (6:2, 4:3OT. 4:1) and in Quarter Finals they won more then easy against CSKA (6:0, 6:5, 3:2). Till that date CSKA had streak of 17 games at home without a lose in regular time, in fact they won 16 of that games in regular time. Kazan played incredible scoring 12 goals in two games. Their first two lines, Zaripov-Zinoviev-Morozov and Petrov-Chayanek-Hentunen have been in great form deciding this games alone. Kazan goal difference in Play-off was 28:13, average 6,83 gls per match. Pretty unusual for Play-off.

Salavat was the most confident team in regular season, they won league with 10 pts difference, but it could easily be more if they weren't "resting" for last few weeks. In Play-off they were almost as confident, winning Amur 3:1 (2:0, 2:1, 2:3, 7:2) and Severstral 3:0 (3:1, 2:1, 3:0). As you can see most of games ended with low number of goals, but mostly cause opponent was unable to score. Salavat doesn't score too much if they don't need to, but against Kazan it could be different story. They have four strong lines and all can score, but neither of that lines is on ZZM level so i think Salavat won't have easy time and two goals won't be enough for win here. So far they averaged three goals scored per match and if they keep that level i can see this match going easily in over. Kazan will score at least two if not more.

So, we have two teams capable of scoring big numbers, both in great form, first match of Semi Finals. Can I see them making a low scoring match?? To tell the truth - yes, but it all depends of how will teams open first period, in eg against CSKA Kazan took early lead, it was 4:1 after first period and game continued to be high scoring finishing 6:5. I don't expect that number of goals, but i can see six or seven goals here. As i said, it all depends how will teams open the match. Usually there is big number of goals in their mutual meetings, this season particular:

2008-02-20 Ak Bars 2-4 Salavat Ufa

2007-12-04 Ak Bars 5-2 Salavat Ufa

2007-09-15 Salavat Ufa 5-4 Ak Bars

But even before it was also high scoring match. I think bookies are doing mistake here with this low line, i expected same odds for 5,5 line and this is must take, although it isn't really a "safe" bet as it's Play-off and first match in Semi Finals, but i expect Kazan to maintain their efficiency and Salavat to try to follow... Six goals are my guess

Pick : over 4,5
Odds : 1.87
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Date : 2008-03-22
Match Result : 3-0
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://scythe.blogabet.com/

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