Australian Grand Prix

I love novelty markets, quite often you can really exploit the odds and i think i have found another oportunity here.

The bet revolves around if all the cars will complete lap 1 or not.

Well the first thing we need to worry about is the first bend. At Albert Park there is a huge runoff zone and cars can quite safely take to the grass and return to the track.

Next lets look at the history of the Australian Grand Prix and in particular the first retirement occuring on which lap:

2007 Lap 10

2006 Lap 1 (accident)

2005 Lap 16

2004 Lap 9

2003 Lap 5

2002 Lap 1 (8 cars failed to do 1 lap!)

2001 Lap 1 (brake failure)

2000 Lap 1 (gearbox)

1999 Lap 1 (accident & failure)

1998 Lap 1 (gearbox)

Now to look at the last 10 years 6 times a car failed to complete lap 1. However theres 1 or 2 key bits of info we can take from this. #1 is that the Adelaide has been the opening grand prix of the season every year (bar 2006). With the lack of time to test the cars and no races completed the cars have a higher attrition rate. However with the new rules regarding engine swap penalties (and this year a gearbox has to last 4 races) the teams are forced to concentrate more on reliability. Little wonder then that in the last 5 years there has not been a single car fail to finish lap 1 due to a mechanical failure.

The other piece of info to note (#2) is the lack of accidents causing retirements. With the track being so wide and with its open run off areas its little wonder.

Just for good measure no rain is expected which is another plus obviously.

So if we conclude the chances of an accident are around 20% and the chance of a breakdown are no higher than 25% (based on the last 5 years when manufacturers have been forced to make more relaible cars) odds of 1.95 on all the cars completing lap 1 has to be value surely?



Pick : All the cars to finish lap 1
Odds : 1.95
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Nordic Bet
Date : 2008-03-15
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

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