I can´t miss this one! Every time when I see a mistake by the bookies I put a smile on my face. So here, I´m following our basketball experts Divol and Simpson (by the way, great work guys, keep on freezing the bookies) and jump on this bet-train.

OK, my ML odds would be about 1.45 for Pana to win, as I estimate this as a 65-35 game, that´s not a big difference to the bookies odds, but Pana to win with 8 and higher is for me about 2.60, cause we´ve got here 2 more or less equal teams with a clearly form-advantage for Siena.

To compare: Pana lost in Istanbul 64-74, Siena won 79-76

Pana beat Partizan 67-65, Siena won 71-54

Siena won at home 84-75

Montepaschi lost in Belgrade, but they didn´t play bad at all, Palacio saved the Serbs with a extraordinary performance. Panathinaikos trailed in both home games, vs. Partizan (-16!) and even vs. Efes (without the Americans).

As Siena has won the home-game with + 9, Pana got to win this game with double-digits and win in Belgrade to avoid Tau in the quarter-final. That´s (for me) a mission impossible. In current form Panathinaikos got to be satisfied to finish second in the group, to avoid one of the biggest sensations in Euroleague history.

Tsartsaris and Tomasevic are sidelined for Pana, Becirovic and Hatzivrettas are questionable. The only miss for Siena is Kaukenas (long-time injury).

Pretty high stakes!

Pick : Montepaschi Siena +7,5
Odds : 1.90
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Bwin
Date : 2008-03-13
Match Result : 77-76
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