Not chasing anything here, it's the great value I can smell that makes me take this selection. As you probably remember, I was on Benfica a week ago against the same Getafe and got surprisingly burned, never thought I could lose that bet, but it's happened in the end, but let's see some facts:



Firstly, to be noted that Benfica have played in 10 men for around 80 minutes, that's a lot if you ask me, and can affect a team's perfomace and morale very well. Even though, Benfica played good football, and the Spaniards scored quite lucky the first goal, and then doubled their lead somehow, but overall they were NOT better despite their numerical advantage. As the result counts the most, they are being viewed as favourites when they faceBenfica today, which I'll never agree. Why? 3 reasons:



1. Benfica are a class above, and are here and not in CL due to their terrible bad luck.



2. The result counts. To sum it up, they only have to defend a 2-1 lead from the first leg, that means they'll let Benfica make the play, and wait for their chances on counters, which suits well as Benfica play better when they can move the ball and have possesion.



3. Getafe is overrated because of their win at Bernabeu, and then because of their win against Murcia at the week-end, which again, was a very lucky win despite the 3-0 score, Murcia had like 4 cut chances to score and couldn't score a single goal, and Getafe scored on their every single attempt. Also, I expect them to struggle soon, they won't be able to deal with so many fixtures.



Óscar Cardozo is out for Benfica, he's their main striker, but they also got Nuno Gomez who's more than decent. On the other hand that will matter little as Getafe have much more problems with their squad. Thus, Esteban Granero, Daniel Diaz, Mario Alvarez, Francisco Sousa, Miguel Pallardo, Ikechukwu Uche and Manu Del Moral are out injured plus Braulio and Pablo Hernandez suspended. As you can see they'll have NO strikers, Manu and Ulche are their main strikers and they are both out, also, Pallardo is very important in their middle.



Pick : AWAY
Odds : 2.07
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Mansion88
Date : 2008-03-12
Match Result : 1-0
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

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