This is close to a banker for me! Odds are already dropping everywhere, they are about 1.55 and 1.60, but they have still value, as I don´t rate it as a 60-40 bet.

3. game of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage. We got here two Peruvian teams, but only one with real chances to go further and that´s Cienciano, although both teams are weaker in my oppinion than Nacional Montevideo and Flamengo.

Bolognesi played both games so far at home, a lucky 0-0 draw against Flamengo and a 0-1 loss vs. Nacional, these opponents are simply too strong for them. Cienciano has beaten Nacional 2-1 at home and lost 1-2 in Rio, so against the same opponents they managed to score 3 goals. OK, but that´s not enough for me to bet on them.

Cienciano is from Cusco, they play their home-games at high altitude, over 3000m above the sea. They rarely lose points at home in the Peruvian league, for example they have 13 wins and 1 draw in the last 14 games at home, the last loss was in July against Uni Lima. It comes better, they have 9-0-1 in the last 5 years against todays opponent Bolognesi (in Cusco) with 22 goals scored and 7 conceded, the only loss was in Dec. 2005 0-1.

Cienciano´s coach Franco Navarro rested his top players on Saturday, they lost 0-3 vs. Univ. San Martin away, cause they want to win this game. Bolognesi did not do the same, they played 1-1 away vs. Melgar with full squad.

So I give the edge to a slightly better, more motivated and a well rested team with a big home advantage.

I expect a 2-0, 2-1 win!

Pick : Cienciano
Odds : 1.67
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Globet
Date : 2008-03-11
Match Result : 1-0
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