World Championships Östersund 2008: 15km Individual Women

Once again having spent the best part of 4 hours researching and backing these i make no apologies for the copy/paste nature of this preview. Its just nice to have some time on my hands to share a few of my thoughts with you.

Andrea Henkel has 2 gold medals in her pocket after winning the sprint and the pursuit in imperious fashion and is on her very best form. Her shooting has been superb and her ski speed is not too shabby either. With the medals safely tucked away she can shoot relativly relaxed and starts a worthy favourite for the 15k. However with a 1 minute penalty for a miss i am not about to tip her at 4.0 for the win as she is far from the best shot in the womens tour.

Instead and true to form i turn my focus to the head 2 head matchups. I have said this before but i havent written anything in a while so maybe some people will be unfamiliar with my betting. With an army of stats, no pressure of time and a multitude of markets to select from i believe H2H betting offers tremendous value to us the punter. Despite the typical 120% books we are often offered there are always arbs o be found and this means sub 100% books. Someone has it wrong and i am to exploit it. In the long run it works, my balance proves that.

Anyway, here are the H2Hs to have caught my eye today:

Martina Glagow vs Michaela Ponza

Whenever a 15km individual comes along the first biathlete i want to check is Martina Glagow. She is a fantastic shot and that serves her mighty well in a discipline where a miss adds 1 minute onto your total time. Both skiers missed 1 target (out of 10) in the sprint and finished within 1 place of each other. In the pursuit Glagow again missed 1 (out of 20) while Ponza missed 4, 1 in each shoot and was consequently soundly beaten by Molly.

Molly has rested since the pursuit while Ponza has been out on the tracks again in the mixed relay so Glagow comes into this race more rested.

Molly sits 5th in the overall rankings to Ponzas 13th and the 15km individual is easily Glagows best event. Everything points to a Glagow win for me here and Betsafes 1.75 must be taken.

Anna-Carin Olofsson vs Oksana Khvostenko

Anna-Carin Olofsson has always been a very fast skier whose shooting lets her down ridiculously often. However its worth noting Östersund is in Sweden and this is Anna-Carins best chance to medal on home snow. The 15km is her best event for obvious reasons. Her quick ski speed allows her to make up for her shooting which often seems to go when under pressure.

A quick look at her shooting in this world championships shows 2 misses in the sprint, 4 misses in the pursuit and more wobbly shooting in the mixed relay needing 4 extra shots to rattle down her targets.

Contrast this with Khovstenko. She finished a superb 3rd in the sprint shooting clear before missing 4 times in the pursuit and slipping down the standings.

However the 15kms is not Khovstenkos best, her last 4 world cup results being 10th, 19th, 20th and 39th. This doesnt compare too well with Olofssons 5th, 4th, 4th, 4th does it!

If you actually compare their shooting % this season theres really not much in it, Khovstenko edging it 85% to 84%.

Too much reliance has been placed on Khovstenkos sprint result. If you actually look at the pursuit results the two were seperated by just 13 seconds. This does not equate to Olofsson being a 2.45 shot to beat Khovstenko. Outsider i accept but the odds are far too big.

Simone Denkinger vs Magdalena Gwizdon

Such is the depth of German skiing Simone Denkinger makes her race debut at this years worlds in this event. Magdalena Gwizdon meanwhile has been busy racing in all 3 events with the 15km being her 4th.

She excelled in the sprint shooting clear which is something she very rarely does. She is comfortably the worst shot amongst the world class biathletes averaging a miserable 72%. In the pursuit and again in the mixed relay she returned to her true form missing plenty once again.

Simone sadly will never set the biathlon world alight even tho her smile after holding a lead in the relay for Germany is one of biathlons greatest sights. She is simply a steady unspectacular biathlete, good just not great. We can basically rely on her to finish in the top 20. Gwizdon's shooting will probably fail once again allowing Denkinger to claim her scalp. If you feel like shopping around you will find a decent arb on this, as it is i will side with Nordicbets 1.87 on Smiling Simone making me smile.

Tatiana Moiseeva vs Xianying Liu

The Chinese threatened so much but just do not seem to have produced on the biathlon stage. It strikes me the Chinese government just do not plough the money into their biathletes now and their athletes have suffered as a result. A couple of seasons ago Liu was really threatening the world cup podium but has faded away in the last few seasons. Her ski speed seems to have gone and her shooting is not that great anyway averaging a miserly 80% this year.

In comparison Moiseeva is on the up. A 2nd place in the individual earlier this season and 2 top 10s in 2 races means she lines up as a live outsider to take the gold medal. Her shooting is significantly better over the year too at 86%.

Quite how these two have been paired up remains something of a mystery to me, quite how the odds on Moiseeva with betsafe have been allowed to hit 1.8 is an even bigger mystery. In my mind these are not two evenly matched biathletes and i expect a strong showing from Tatiana Moiseeva.

Helena Jonsson vs Solveig Rogstad

Helena Jonsson has been getting better and better year by year. Three top 5 finishes over this distance in her last 5 world cup/world championships just underlines that she is one of biathlons leading lights. She skis well, shoots well and this is the secret of her success. In short she is ranked in the top 10 of all biathletes for a very good reason. The pressure of skiing on home snow didnt affect her much

Compare this to Solveig Rogstad. Rogstad stunned the biathlon world at Ruhpolding, following a 4th placed sprint with a win in the pursuit. She has 9 top 30 finishes in 16 races this year with 3 top 10s. Its been a remarkable debut world cup season but in her only individual 15km she finished 55th. If you look at her junior results over this distance they are not terribly inspiring.

This could well be a complete blowout and is perhaps the best of all these H2H's. Its the one i have the most confidence in. The 1.70 is well worth taking.



Pick : Olofsson to beat Khovstenko
Odds : 2.45
Stake : 4 / 10
Bookmaker : BetSafe
Date : 2008-02-13
Match Result :
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