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I believe Arsenal has the better chance to win this one but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the draw. Here are my reasons for this belief:
First of all, Arsenal's home form cannot be ignored. It's nothing but terrific. With a 7-1-0 so far this season, Arsenal stan third in the home table of the EPL with only the two teams from MAnchester above. On the other hand, Chelsea's away form is good too, but considering the teams they have played against, it's not much of a sign yet. Beating the likes of Derby, Wigan, Boro, and Bolton is not something hard for the blues.
Second, Chelsea will be without both Drogba and Essien. While Grant can find a substitute for the latter, certainly, Drogba will be missed. Recent years have shown that a Chelsea side without Drogba probably loses 50% of its strength and take Valencia's match as an example.
Finally, Chelsea have won only one of the last 17 league trips to Arsenal back in 2005. However, it's worth to mention that the Blues are undefeated as well in their last 10 encounters with the Gunners (Five wins & five draws)
Regarding teams news, it has been reported that Fabregas has returned back to
training and thus could be in the team. Flamini and Hleb remain sielined. On the other hand, Drogba, Essien, and Ballack are all unavailable for this match as stated above. Both Carvalho and Malouda are doubtful and will face a late fitness test.
Verdict: I believe that Arsenal will not lose today, but I do not guarantee a home win either. Therefore, Arsenal on level ball will be my choice.
Good Luck