WC U20, Division I, Group B

Along with this two, in this group are Latvia, Belarus, Slovenia and France.

Yesterday was day full of surprises on this tournament (in this group). Only Latvia had game as expected and easy won over France. Today i don't think it will be the same, but here i think there is value in this odds.

Two teams that should fight against relegation, they are main candidates and before you read rest of this analysis you should first read my yesterdays explanation of Slovenia - G. Britain pick. This is very important match for both teams, let's see how they've played yesterday:

G. Britain - Brits lost against Slovenia after SO, it was 3:4, but official shots statistics shows us what really happend there. Slovenians had 80 shots compared to 29 British made. Bad shots selection? Probably, but still i don't remember when i last time saw such a big difference in shots. British goalie Clarkson must had great day, while Slovenian Grabnar was disaster. Overall i can see that Slovenians played nervouse, especially in 2nd period when Brits score all three of their goals. Three times ""too many players on ice" is totally amateur, and overall Slovenians had more penalties then Brits. Well, Brits played good, defensive and had a lots of luck

Hungary - faced favorites for promotion, Belarus. Lost 2:3 in cagey game in which they were 0:2 down already in fifth minute. After that Hungarian goalie Hetenyi closed the doors to his net and that gave boost of confidence to his teammates, just like Clarkson did for Brits. In the begining of third period Hungarians equalise on 2:2! Great surprise, but they couldn't hold to an end and finally lose 2:3. Result that is far from realistic and i doubt that they could repeat it. They also got outshooted 63-25, which is still better then Britain, but not really good. What's more important is that they faced a lot harder opponent as Belarus should be at least one class above Slovenia. Goalie Hetenyi was absolutely great and Hungary seems more disciplined then Britain. Off course that they could be tired after such a match, but Brits also have tough game behind them.

So, we have to teams that are pretty equal, both made good results in first round, but mostly thanks to goalies. Clarkson had magnificent day and i doubt that he can repeat it, while Hetenyi was on his usual level (he is 2nd goalie in Alba, one of the worst EBEL teams and usually has 40+ shots against him). I rate teams totally equal, and this odds on Brits is non-sense. I also thought about under 6,5 but i decided to go with ML because of better odds. I don't expect one way match, and i rate Hungarians even slightly better, but it's always hard to judge on this level. Anyway, odds that i caught (and are gone now) were 2.81, still, anything above 2.30 looks very good to me.

Pick : Hungary DNB
Odds : 2.54
Stake : 5 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Date : 2007-12-13
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://scythe.blogabet.com/

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