One of decisive games for Play-off. Point difference is only three points between the Furuset and Stjernen, and there's place in Play-off for only one as Lillehammer seems to far away with their recent wining streak and seven points advance in front of Furuset. So, this match is "to be or not to be" for both teams, win for Stjernen would equalise them on eight position, while home win would brought Furuset six points difference which would be huge advantage.

Here, i like hosts better, not only because of home advantage, but also because of current form and a bit better impression that they've left on me during whole season until now. Since they've changed coach and fired Dave Livingston, their performances improved even more, but still they've lost tight to very strong Frisk (2:4), but won home match against average Stavanger after OT (0:0). What is obvious just from results is that their defensive performance improved a lot (even before they've switched coach they played good defensively). Their problem is that they always concede one more then they can score, but at home they are still doing good: W4-D3-L5 28:30. As you can see, they at home don't have too much high scoring games, in fact their average goals sum per match doesn't exceed 4,83 goals. That's way below current O/U margin.

Stjernen entered season optimistically, especially since they got three wins in first three rounds. But then they suffered bitter defeat against Lillehammer (which wasn't as weak as everyone, including me, expected). Along with it they couldn't bare with their debts (it was well known even before season has started) so atmosphere in club become worser and worser. Since then they entered huge crisis, only Trondheim (almost amateur team) is worst then them, in last 20 games they've managed only four wins, along with it three times they were unbeaten in regular time, but lost in OT/SO. Still, it was more because of weak attack, then bad defense that they were losing all the time, they are worst team in goals scored column, even Trondheim scored more then them (Stjernen scored 44 in 24 games). They have problems to score against teams with good defense, and now are already two games without a goal scored (but they played strong Valerenga and Sparta). But, they also didn't concede too much, only seven goals in two games. As this match is very important for them i don't expect them to play worser then they played until now.

As a conclusion, Furuset may be slightly better team, but odds reflect that (still 1.95 with Expekt seems a bit too much). But what i can see here is low scoring match, both teams have high motivation for this one, so it could be pretty intense, but bad attack by both (especially Stjernen) and solid defensive ability by Furuset should grant us low scoring affair. Home win also looks good, but because of possibility of draw (that fits Furuset much more then Stjernen) i decided to go with under 6. Recent tradition also goes in our favor, in last five games they went three times under this margin and twice it was exactly six goals. Mutual games this season:

2007-11-29 Stjernen 4-1 Furuset

2007-11-22 Furuset 4-2 Stjernen

2007-10-11 Stjernen 4-2 Furuset

I expect score like 3:1

Pick : under 6
Odds : 1.85
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Date : 2007-12-11
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://scythe.blogabet.com/

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