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In terms of bullpen the diffrence is huge 3.00 vs 8.00 of bullpen's ERA, and in terms of starting pitchers?
Kazmir (Tampa bay) used to be the devil rays best pitcher, and it used to be hard to win against him, but lately that hasn't been so true - he has a last 3 games ERA of 4.95, while his season ERA is 3.79 - he hasn't faced any big teams lately, and even so, he has allowed a lot of hits and runs, showing a lot less control then the usual and striking out a lot less.
other hand it's Curt Schilling (boston) pitching tonight - he has a season ERA of 4.04 and a whip of 1.29, but in the last 3 games he has made quite some performences - ERA of 2.84 - he usually doesn't strike out a lot, and hasn't been doing so, but he shows a very good control, and i'm very confident on him.
With both temas batting pretty good lately, this differences in the pitching staff should be decisive. I'm going on the handicap here.