Stadium: Polideportivo Cachamay

Referee: Carlos Chandía (Chile)

Last time they encounter was on World Cup Germany 2006, in the eightfinals with Argentina winnign 2-1 in extratimes, thanks a great goal of MF Maxi Rodriguez. Last time they encounter in America Cup was on 2004, with victory of Mexico 1-0 in group stage.

Mexico

After taking out Paraguay 6-0, match where the start was the perfect for Mexico as Paraguay GK was expelled and the referee granted them a penalty, that FW Nery Castillo who suffer the foul convert into goal. After that Mexico laid back and await the attacks from Paraguay and in counterattack go increasing the lead, the second goal came from MF Gerardo Torrado, then FW Nery Castillo increased with a great definition infront of Paraguay GK Joel Sayaz. In another attack a long distance shoot of MF Fernando Arce increase the lead. Round the score a penalty kick goal of MF Cuauhtemoc Blanco and another of FW Omar Bravo in the final minute of the match. The hich scoring doesn't reflect the real level of Mexico, as after the second goal Paraguay almost gave up the match and altought some individual efforts, they didn't produce the necessary force to sustain Mexico counterattacks. The match was direclty affected by the explusion of GK Bobadilla which affect the whole match.

A perfect result that lead Mexico media to jump in the car of optimism and don't look to the real form of the team. But the injury of FW Nery Castillo in the second half light up the alarms on Mexico side, as it is unknow if he is going to be fit for this match. It will be hours before the match where if would be decide whenever FW Nery Castillo goes to the starting lineup or the bench or the stands depending on his injury.

FW Nery Castillo quality has display movement, speed and cold blood at the time of shooting, this tie with the great work FW Juan Carlos Cacho have done making passes, opening spaces, helping him makes a very peculiar pair of attacker. Nery has extreme hability and speed, meanwhile Cacho doesn't get jealous if Nery has the spotlight, knows the concept "team work", plays easy, chooses the right path for the ball, which complements very well with Nery capabilities. If Nery doesn't play, Mexico will have to deliver a different playing form as in all the matches they have play FW Nery Castillo is in charge of opening the score thanks to his individual capabilities.

If something can be highlight in this team is their defense, where they have allowed only one match in four matches they have dispute in this cup, and that goal came against Ecuador (late in that match). The attack is fair and just doing the necesary to win the match (despite scoring six goals against Paraguay, match that due to the quick expulsion of Paraguay GK couldn't be consider where). Consolidated with a midfield pressing that desesperate rivals attacks and delivers mistakes that gave back the ball control t o Mexico. In the GK theire is the dispute of who should play if GK Guillermo Ochoa of GK Oswaldo Sanchez, but in last three matches coach Hugo Sanchez has showed that GK Oswaldo Sanchez is his current starting player and that Ochoa is the future and for that he gave him the start in the first match but then hold him and send experience Oswaldo Sanchez.

The virtudes of Mexico are a tight defense, good pressing on midfield with fine ball control and movement, with good variants on attack with Nery or Cacho, and is her where the doubt of FW Nery Castillo has Mexico waiting to see if the is going to play or not.

Injured:

FW Nery Castillo (could possibly play, depends on how he recover)

Argentina

With a 4-0 score, that reflects Argentina playing style that likes to have the ball and move it along the pitch to get tired the other team and then take chance of the individual and team qualities they have on the second half, with MF Juan Roman Riquelme leading the playing attacks and scoring two goals, together with one goa of FW Lionel Messi and one of MF Javier Mascherano take out Peru out of the competition to land on the semifinals of the cup.

The team is the third best defense, as in the first two matches the team allowed three goals, but they have get better in that instace as they haven't allowed a goal in the last two matches. The scoring is the best weapon of the team, where their leader is MF Juan Riquelme with four goals, the team has been able to score at least four goals in three of their four matches, just in their third group match with an alternative squa the team didn't accomplish that and just score a goal. The incorporation of FW Carlos Tevez in second parts of the match has been important and is contributing more than FW Diego Militio (who has take the place of FW Crespo on the attack).

Argentina based their play with a lot of pressing and fight for the ball posesion, where in possesion of the ball is where the team is more comfortable. With a quick pressure the players hide the open spaces they leave by doing that. MF Juan Roman Riquelme has individual capabilties to put the ball where the FW's need it, also open spaces that MF Juan Veron can take handy to deliver the ball to Messi or help Riquelme open way in the defense and then gave him the ball. Argentina posses a huge load of players with huge capalitites as showed in last match with Mexico where an individual geniality was needed to take the victory.

The team for Argentina is confirmed in all the positions except one, the same lineup that cameout against Peru, but with the doubt of FW Diego Milito (a center forward) or FW Carlos Tevez (a whole attack area forward). Fw Carlos Tevez has deliver a better performance when on the pitch than Diego Milito. Argentina has showed fair defense, quick and effective pressing, movement of ball to get tired the rival and a very effective attack that seems very strong.

Injured:

FW Hernan Crespo

Match:

With Brazil already on the final, any team that arrives there it will be a revenge match, if Argentina arrive will have the chance of revenge after lossing last America Cup final against Brazil in 2004. But if Mexico arrive then Brazil would have the revenge of the group match defeat Mexico gave them on the opener of the group. It will be a very intense and dispute match with both teams pressing to have contol of the ball, the midfield will be key in this and is expected to be the area with more gameplay. The speed of Forwards will be key, here Mexico needs Nery to play to have a chance, meanwhile Argentina has many players to do this. The defenses are going to face a hard time after the midfield is passed, both teams have showed their offensive weapons, more Argentina than Mexico, but is on defense where Mexico has showed better than Argentina. There is going to be physical fatigue as the intensity will be high.

Prediction:

For match winner the logic points towards a victory of Argentina, still I don't see it that clear because Mexico has showed inteligence to control the matches in this cup, something they lack in Gold Cup, also here they can relay more on counterattack as Argentina is obligated to go out looking for the match, so I found value on Mexico 1AH, but most of this relays on Fw Nery Castillo playing, if he is absent then Mexico will face a harder match.

Pick : Mexico
Odds : 1.95
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Betsson
Date : 2007-07-12
Match Result :
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