Here we go with the big preview of the 2007 Giro D'Italia. Regular readers will be well aware that a large part of my profits here have come from the 3 big tours (Italy, France & Spain). If that hasnt made you sit up and take notice, just have a look at the position we are in courtesy of the outright bet we placed just over a week ago. Like the look of that? Theres more of that vein in here, at least i hope so.

There is no point on going over the outright, we have that nicely covered with our picks of Simono, Cunego, Savodelli and Di Luca. Instead im going to pickout 1 or 2 head to head outright picks and cover stage 1.

Firstly the overall team classification. Saunier Duval has sent an imposing list of top quality riders. Their chief rivals in the betting are Lampre and Liquigas. I dont understand how Lampre are such a short price, their squad doesnt look full of likely top 20 finishers to me. Granted saunier lack a good sprinter but the real time is made up in the mountain stages. Expect Saunier to be behind until the race starts going uphill.

Saunier Duval boast the talents of Simoni, Gomez, Piepoli (all great climbers) Ricco, an emerging talent a potential tour winner of the future (also a good climber) Iban Mayo who if he redsicovers his old form is a top rider (dont count on this) and some domestiques who are pretty decent riders in their own right.

I really like the looks of the Saunier Duval boys. Their squad is power packed and they look worth following to me. 4.0 (Nordicbet) is well worthy of our money.

Saunier are 2.05 to beat Lampre and also 2.05 to beat Liquigas (Nordicbet). I think Liquigas are the big threat to Saunier so i'll swerve them and stick with taking on Lampre.

The other team i like are Ceramica Panaria. They also have a lot of strength in depth with the likes of Sella, Pozzovivo, Baliani all likely top 20 finishers with Grillo and Cuapio supporting in the mountains. 10.0 (Ladbrokes) looks worth each way support.

CSC have no designs on the GC and are looking to take stage wins. We have to go for them and Caisse D'Epargne look a squad capable of doing that @ 1.75 (Nordicbet).

A team i expect to be nearer last than first is Predictamon Lotto. Cioni aside they have a squad that looks built around getting Robbie McEwen some stage wins. Tinkoff Credit Systems at 2.05 (Nordicbet) has a better than the odds suggest of winning their matchup.

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Stage 1 CAPRERA - LA MADDALENA 26km Team Time Trial

The Giro kicks off with the Team Time Trial. For me CSC start a decent favourite. Winners of the last 2 team time trials CSC have a squad without anyone challenging for the overall GC. They are here for stage wins and this is a great chance to get one on the board early. Odds of 1.70 are not going to set the world alight and they dont have the best draw starting 4 which means everyone behind them will know what sort of splits they need to take the stage.

Nordicbet are offering the field at 2.40 against CSC. I think thats pretty fair and worth a go considering the above facts.

Almost every team without fail has moaned about how dangerous the course is. Some teams will take risks, others will not. With this in mind i expect a cautious approach from Lampre, Astana and Saunier Duval and would happily take all 3 on with just about anybody within reason.

Discovery are one of the teams who will take risks i think. We can support them by backing them to beat Lampre at an eye catching 1.82 (bet1128). Easily the best value in the H2Hs on the stage betting this. Its a wrong price, pure and simple.

If you fancy a double, back Caisse D'Epargne to beat Cofidis. Cofidis are one of the worst time trialing teams about and you and i could probably beat them equipped with a BMX and a chopper. Ok so thats an exageration but its no exageration to suggest Caisse D'Epargne ought to be a 1.40 chance to beat Cofidis. Instead they are 1.75 (Bet1128). Get on.

With Thor Hushovd and Cauchiolli in the 9, Credit Agricole have what ought to be a strong TT outfit. Their results bely this and are probably under-rated as a result. We can show our support by backing them to see off the Tinkoff team @ 1.80 (Bwin).

T-Mobile are traditionally a VERY strong team time trial unit. They may not have sent the best team they have to Italy but putting them in a H2H with the Lotto boys is a bit of a mismatch and you can help yourself to some 1.80 (Nordicbet) if like me you believe there is a gulf in class between them.

The final pick will be Milram to see off the Tinkoff Credit System team. Odds of 1.80 (Bwin) again do not seem to highlight the gulf in class between these two. Milram often feature in the top positions and i fully expect they will do so again. If they do it'll be far too strong for Tinkoff who will be hoping for a top 10 at the very best.

Pick : Tinkoff to beat Lotto (overall team)
Odds : 2.05
Stake : 4 / 10
Bookmaker : Nordic Bet
Date : 2007-06-03
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

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