Stadium: Azteca (neutral venue)

Referee: Sergio Pezzotta (Argentina)

First Leg: Club Nacional 3 - 2 Necaxa

Note: This match will not be play on Victoria stadium on Aguascalientes as there is a Shakira concert and the team had to moved to Azteca stadium on Mexico City to dispute this match. The venue has a capacity of 120,000 seats, many of those would be left empty as Necaxa doesn't provoke great convocation (as one of the reasons the team left Mexico City was that one), even put a economic price to the tickets to promote assistance.

Necaxa (Mexico)

The apperance of reinforcements on Necaxa wheren't bright and showed lack of integreation as GK Vilar make one of their worst display as concede three goals many of those the GK could and should have done more, as most of them leave the ball near his net and Club Nacional take handy this to score. Still thanks to Kleber Boas three goals the team just need a goal to qualified to next stage.

Winning is the only way for Necaxa, winning by 3-2 would send the game to extra times. Winning by one goal and Nacional scoring more than two goals would mean Nacional will go to next stage. So the best scenario to be with less pressure is to be winning by a two goal margin or more.

Necaxa make a great group stage and manage to finish on the top position. Open with a serie of three victories, two of them in home and one in away to Alianza Lima. But then the scenario complicates as get two defeats, both in away to Sao Paulo and Audax Italiano. But close the group stage with Alianza Lima (worst team of the group) on home where the team won 2-0 to grab a place in next stage. On home the team just allowed on goal and that was to powerfoul Sao Paulo, and from the other two matches grab clean sheets. On away is another story as allowed at least a goal in all the matches they played.

Being on Mexico City brings altitude to be an ally to Necaxa. But being in a big venue as Azteca with a low convocation on the spectators would make the team doesn't feel as home team.

The team didn't face local tournament activity as it has already been eliminated from it.

Club Nacional (Uruguay)

Last match the team accomplished a home victory, where the team take handy mistakes of Necaxa to take the victory, the bad note is they allowed two goals against, both of them from Necaxa FW Kleber Boas, which keeps Necaxa alive and with many chances.

The team for this match needa a draw or a victory to get straight to next stage. Lossing 1-0, 2-1 would represent elimination, lossing 3-2 would mean extra times and lossing 4-3, or any other high scoring score with one goal difference would send Nacional to next round.

In the group stage the team make their home stand winning their three matches, they allowed just one way against in two matches and collect a clean sheet against Velez. But in away the team is another history as they first draw 1-1 against Velez, but then concede two defeats 1-0 against Emelec and Internacional. Even on the last match against Internacional the defeat wasn't the worst that could happen, as only lossing 4-0 would make them lost their ticket to next round, which didn't happen as they hold Internacional to 1-0 victory that eliminated the champion in the group stage for the first time.

Accumulates four under 2.5 matches and one over 2.5 matches. All three away matches where under 2.5 goals scoreline, showing the team put a hard stand on away. But this time as 1-0 scoreline would eliminated I expect the team to be more offensive.

The team was concentrated on Cuernavaca, city near Mexico City (where the match would be played) altought Cuernavaca is a high altitude city, the reality is that Mexico City is higher that Cuernavaca and even local people of Cuernavaca have headaches when coming to Mexico City. So I expect El Nacional to suffer this also.

Last local league match the team draw 1-1 against CA River Plate, and mantains in the 9th position with 18 points, 12 points from first place Danubio. Which won 0-2 to Defensor Sporting. The team is focused on the match against Necaxa on Libertadores Cup.

Match:

A tense match as just one goal separated both teams, Nacional could stand the score and aspire to finish drawing and advance, but in group stage the team allowed 1-0 defeats that in this scenariou would killed them. In azteca stadium altitude would have some effect on the players and this could benefit Necaxa playing style which is with the ball control and on the ground, with good passes. I expected more communication between their reinforcements and the team which would help with a better performance of the team. Kleber has to continue scoring if they want to continue advancing.

Prediction:

The bookies go by the stats than on home Necaxa is hard to beat, but on this Neutral ground as few spectators are expected then Necaxa wouldn't be exactly in "home". So Nacional would have few pressure, but I expect Necaxa to cover their mistakes of last match and put a nice stand and take the victory. So Necaxa -1/2AH

Pick : Necaxa
Odds : 1.75
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Bet365
Date : 2007-05-11
Match Result :
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