Giro D'Italia 2007

Its a bit early for a full preview of this years Giro D'Italia but now is the time to take advantage of some very slack bookmaking.

The betting revolves around Ivan Basso, runaway winner of this event 12 months ago. Clearly if he were racing he would be a warm favourite for the win. However drug allegations which you may have been aware of from the tour de france (which he missed) have re-surfaced and Basso WILL NOT be racing in the Giro D'Italia.

This information is not red hot latest news, i have known for at least a week. However some bookmakers still have Basso listed as favourite for the event.

Basso is quoted in La Gazzetta dello Sport as saying:

"Anyway, I am not going to be at the Giro. Even with the consensual separation with Discovery, I had already decided not to race it," continued the 29 year-old from Varese.

Beings as this is an ante post bet, once you have placed your bet they cannot be lowered so you can get some cracking value at the moment.

So who should you back? Well i recommend backing 3 or 4 riders for your ante post portfolio. Remember we are looking to take advantage of some wrong prices so it makes no sense to throw all our eggs in one basket.

Firstly with the last 10 winners of the Giro all being Italian, riding for the host country is a big help! Here is a description of the chief Italian threats:

The likely favourite is Damiano Cunego. Cunego won the Giro in 2004 (a big shock) and won the young riders jersey in the Tour de France last year. Primarily a climber, he can ride a good time trial and a high finish on the GC looks assured.

Next up is his rival and former team-mate Gilberto Simoni. Simoni famously called Cunego "a bastard and an idiot" sentiments i share when i back Cunego and he doesnt win. Simoni has won the Giro twice in 2001 and 2003. He saves his best form for the Giro and at 35 years of age wont have too many better chances.

Paolo Savoldelli has also won the Giro twice in 2003 and 2005. Like Simoni and Cunego he is a specialist climber altho it could be argued he is a specialist downhiller, no-one descends with the speed he seems to in the peleton. Savoldelli is warming up for the giro by competing in the Tour de Romandie and won the 3.5km prologue. He is confirmed as team leader for Astana.

Danilo Di Luca showed he is on very good form with a win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a few stages wins in smaller races allready this season. Di Luca led the Vuelta A Espana briefly last year and like the others is a good climber. While he has placed well in big tours he has yet to win one, perhaps now is the time? After his win in Liege, Di Luca has decided to rest up ready for an assault on the Giro.

There are of cause no end of dangers but i am narrowing the field down to the 4 Italians most likely to win. Why Italians? because they allways give their best in their home race.

My recommended bet is to back ALL 4 Italians. At combined odds using the stake shown below the odds are 1.846. I assure you that when the adjusted odds appear you will have a huge smile on your face. Betfair traders should simply back all four as the chances are you can lay them all back in a week or so for a free bet anyway.

D.Cunego 4.10 points @ 4.5 (Bet1128)

P.Savoldelli 2.05 points @ 9.0 (Bet1128)

D.Di Luca 1.55 points @ 13.5 (10Bet) or 12.5 (Bet1128)

G.Simoni 2.30 points @ 8.0 (Bet 1128)

If you fancy a punt at odds greater than 2.0 leave out Simoni and your odds are 2.45. Leave out Di Luca and your odds are 2.18, leave out Savoldelli and your odds are 2.40. Pretty good considering i think Cunego's true odds alone are 2.75.

The staking actually fits my revised 4,8 point staking plan (with the goal being to win either 4 or 8 points depending on confidence level, staking to suit the odds). The last time i advised a 10 pointer you may recall the odds shrunk rapidly. This WILL happen again. The odds are wrong and i urge you to take advantage however in whichever style of gambling you see fit to.



Pick : Cunego, Di Luca, Savoldelli or Simoni to win the Giro D'Italia
Odds : 1.85
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Bet1128
Date : 2007-06-03
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

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