Uruguay vs Ecuador

Uruguay welcome their South Americans rivals in Montevideo to get their qualification process on track after their poor 4-0 defeat in Colombia. Colombia dominated the game from the off and the hosts never really turned up and they claim they missed the services of Luis Suarez. This is the first time they have been beaten in the South American World Cup Qualifiers and will look to get back on the winning ways here.

Luis Suarez is set to return to the squad line up and against Colombia they were forced to play a woeful 3-4-2-1 formation where they were overrun by Colombia and could not stifle their attacks. They took advantage in the wide areas where there was no full back and the defense was pulled all over the place. The front three could not get into the game and kept quiet throughout the game. The very early goal they conceded in the first minute knocked them back but fired up the Colombians never dropped a gear.

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Ecuador managed another home win to take them to 12 points but away from they really struggle and have lost both games. The 1-0 victory against Bolivia was their fourth consecutive home win and they look a dangerous side with solid tactical shape and difficult to carve open. They don’t seem as strong away and not sure if its down to complacency or they play a different style of game. The Ecuadorians changed their tactics against Bolivia 4-4-2 where they look more comfortable and fluid. They started with Avovi and Mina up front they lacked quality but as the game went on they looked sharper and ruthless with the introduction of Filipe Caicedo.

It is hard to say what tactic and who is going to play but regardless to that it will be a tight game where Uruguay will win. In the last few games between them home and away where a home team has won it has been by a slender one goal lead.

I have been looking at under 2.5 goals but records have showed a few 2-1 victories as well as 0-0 draws so have decided to rule that market out on the basis of Uruguay poor performance. The -1 handicap I have ruled out due to the facts of the head to head and only end up with the stakes returned. Uruguay is the best bet but odds are very low and are dropping all the time. I have scoured the markets and like the look of the Winning Margin market and am going for Uruguay to win by one goal.

Bet: Uruguay to win by one goal @3.40 with Bet365