Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Team matchup: Milwaukee Brewers are having tough season, after they reached playoffs last year. They lost Fielder and their pitching is not at the same level, then last year. Especially Gallardo, who is one of my favourite pitchers. However, they lost only 3 times in last 8 games. Milwaukee is 24-31 to the season. Yesterday they lost to Chicago Cubs and the will try to bounce back after poor performance. Chicago Cubs on other side is very poor road team. They are just 6-21 on the road this season and they score only 3.3 runs/game on the road. Milwaukee score 5 runs/game at home.
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Pitching matchup: Milwaukee will start with Greinke, their top pitcher, who is 6-2 to the season with ERA 3.46. in his last starts ERA rised to 5.4, but this is only because he had only one bad game. Overall he is very good. What is amazing with Greinke is his home record. He is 3-0 this season with ERA 1.30 at home. He is 13-0 in his last 13 starts at home against teams with loosing record. He is 22-1 in his last 22 home starts and that is just amazing. On other side Maholm, lefty pitcher, who has no success against Milwaukee. He is 4-4, with ERA 4.82 to the season, on the road 1-2, ERA 5.74. One of the reasons, why Maholm never pitcher really good against Milwaukee is that Milwaukee has strong righty lineup (Braun, Hart, Weeks, this year new treath Ramirez,…). Maholm is 3-9 against Milwaukee with ERA 4.74.
Key trends: Cubs are 5-12 in the last 17 meetings. Cubs are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee. Cubs are 0-4 in Maholms last 4 starts as an underdog. Brewers are 18-5 in Greinkes last 23 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Brewers are 21-6 in Greinkes last 27 starts. Brewers are 23-3 in their last 26 games as a home favorite of -201 or greater.
Reason for pick: Milwaukee will have their best pitcher on the mound, who has great success at Miller Park and we have on other side team with negaitve record and with the worst record on the road in the league. Maholm who will pitch for Cubs has bad record against Milwaukee and I think Milwaukee will step up after poor game yesterday. Play Milwaukee with run line.
Bet: Milwaukee -1.5 run line @2.13 with Pinnacle Sports