Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves
Team matchup: Atlanta Braves is 4th best offensive team in MLB. They score 4.9 runs/game and 5.0 runs/game against RHP. On other side Cincinnati Reds are on 23th place in offense and they score only 3.8 runs/game. Atlanta lost last 3 games and I think they will step up in this one, because they will try to avoid sweep in Cincinnati. Atlanta was playing yesterday’s game without their best catcher McCann, who is expected to be in the lineup today.
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Pitching matchup: Atlanta Braves will start with Delgado, who is 2-4 with ERA 4.26 this year, but in last 3 starts he is playing much better. He does not have good BB:K ratio in this games, but he is on ERA 2.75 in his last 3 starts. 10 days ago, he pitched against Cincinnati and he allowed only 1 run and 4 hits over 6.7 ininngs. On other side Bailey will pitch for Cincinnati. He is 2-3 to the season with ERA 4.34. in his last 3 starts his ERA is 5.40. In his 3 starts at home, he allowed 6 home runs and he will face Atlanta team, who is 4th best home run team in National League. He won last game in the same matchup against Delgado in close game. He also allowed only one run then.
Key trends: Braves are 5-0 in last 5, when they where dog between 2.10 and 2.50. Braves are 10-2 in last 12 games, where they scored 2 or less runs in previous game. Reds are 5-12 in last 17 games with Bailey on the mound against team with winning record.
Reason for pick: I think this game is 50-50. Reds are playing at homa and they play better in last games. However, Braves are better offensive team and they will have pitcher on the mound, who is playing batter lately. Braves will also try to avoid sweep, which is one more motivation and McCann will be back in the lineup. It is the same matchup, than 10 days ago, when both pitchers allowed only one run and I expect another very close game and because the odds are 2.11 on Braves, this is value.
Bet: Atlanta Braves Win @2.12 with Pinnacle Sports