Australia vs Argentina

Australia sorted out their thing last week, enough anyway to come from behind to beat South Africa by 7 points and ruin our + 4.5 SA hcap bet. South Africa faded away and just do not seem to have a plan B. So I am not getting carried away with an Australian renaissance. They have lost will genia to long term injury, which simply adds to a long list of key players not available e.g. Horwill, Pocock, OConnor, Mitchell etc. Shipperley had a good debut.

 

As you may have realised by now, I am a big fan of Argentinian rugby. They won us the +28.5 hcap bet against the All Blacks last weekend, losing 21-5 in NZ.

 

Argentina seem capable of playing to a game plan, and with the help of ex all blacks world cup winning coach Graham Henry, will have been briefed on what to expect from Australia this weekend. Their forwards based game is going to cause Australia problems at set pieces and the breakdown. Their backs proved on Saturday, that they can defend against high calibre backs. Australia`s backs are not as good as the All black`s backs on current form, and I think Australia are going to be playing with a lot of slow ball as the puma forwards will be more than competitive against the aussie forwards. The puma pack will not suffer from a lack of experience as South Africa suffered last weekend.

 

We have Wayne Barnes as referee, supported by Nigel Owens touch judging, so the Northern Hemisphere refereeing approach will also suit Argentina.

 

Argentina have stayed in the region following last week’s game, so they will benefit from not having to travel all the way from Argentina. In fact they will have to travel the same distance as Australia as their game was on the west coast in Perth, this Saturday the game is on the East coast of Australia.

 

I expect this game to be close with Australia winning by no more than 10 points, though it is not impossible that Argentina could win.