Houston Astros vs Milwaukee

Team Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers are big disappointment for me this season. They are 38-44 this season and on the road they won only 16 games (16-23 record). On other side we have Houston Astros. They are 32-51 to the season, but they have positive home record and are tough opponent to everyone, when they play at home. Astros have respectable home record of 23-19. Milwaukee score only 3.6 runs/game (with avg 0.225) on the road, Astros score 4.4 runs/game at home with batting avg 0.248. Houston is also 2-0 at home this season against Milwaukee.

 

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Pitching matchup: Greinke will start for Milwaukee. He is one of the best pitchers in the game no, doubt. He is 9-2 to the season with ERA 3.08. But on the road his record is not so good. His ERA on the road is 4.03 and he allowed 72 hits over 60 innings. On other side Wandy Rodriguez, the best pitcher from Houston rotation. He is 6-6 to the season with ERA 3.54. He pitched last time against Milwakee in 2011, when they were one of the best offensive teams in whole NL. This year they are just a shadow from last year. In last two games he allowed only 3 hits. I think he can handle this poor Milwaukee road team.

 

Key trends: Brewers are 1-4 in Greinkes last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Brewers are 1-4 in Greinkes last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Brewers are 9-21 in their last 30 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

 

Reason for pick: Brewers are poor road team, their run production on the road is not the same than at home. Their record on the road is 16-23. So we have team with negative road record against the team with positive home record. Both pitchers are good and experienced. Milwaukee bullpen was shaky in last games, they allowed a ton of runs and this is also small edge to Houston. I think this odds are too high. I know Greinke is really good, but he is some other pitcher on the road. At home is confident, on the road he can struggle in some innings. I think Houston has better chances than this odds suggests.

 

Bet: Houston Astros @2.48 with Pinnacle Sports