New York Mets vs Cincinnati

Team matchup: Cincinnati Reds are red hot right now, they won 3 straight games and they scored 32 runs in these three games (more than 10 runs/game). They are 35-27 to the season and they are on the first place in NL Central. On other side we have NY Mets, who are playing really good this season. They won series against Tampa Bay and they are on the second place in NL East with record 35-29.

 

Pitching matchup: Reds will start with Arroyo. He is very solid pitcher with ERA 3.79, on the road with very good whip 1.100. He has great success against NY Mets, he is 7-3 against them with ERA 3.57 and whip 1.087. On other side we have Gee, who is 4-4 to the season with ERA 4.42. In last starts little bit better, but what I like in this matchup is bullpen. Reds have way better bullpen, ERA 2.66. On other side NY Mets have below average bullpen with ERA 5.48. And in this close game, the bullpen could be cruciallate in the game.

 

Key trends: Reds are 5-1 in Arroyos last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Mets are 2-12 in Gees last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Mets are 1-6 in Gees last 7 home starts. Reds are 4-0 in Arroyos last 4 road starts vs. Mets.

 

Reason for pick: I am going with red hot team, who scored 32 runs in last 3 games. And I am going against a pitcher, who is 1-6 in last 7 home starts. Mets are coming from long road trip and they have bad record in this situation. Reds will also have better pitcher on the mound, who has good record against Mets and they also have better bullpen. So plus money is the play.