First let me point out that Bayern Munich does not have the quality of Madrid. We can debate if Robben, Ribery and Gomez are more dangerous than Ozil, Ronaldo and Higuain/ Benzama all night but the important fact is that Madrid have better defensive resources to cope.
Many people talk about the extra motivation and romance of Munich playing a final in Munich. I think Madrid are just as hungry. It’s almost embarrassing for a club like Madrid not to have won a champions league for a decade, there is the prospect of winning the double and the academic motivation of meeting Barcelona in the final.
I think Mourinho would have preferred to play the second leg away. His usual style is to kill in the game in the first leg, and then park the bus and hit on the counter in the 2nd. Since the first leg is at Munich, Madrid’s approach will be to avoid a 0-0 because it creates too much pressure and leaves the tie open. Madrid will score atleast once in Munich. The Bayern defence is nothing to boast about and smart coaches with resources will exploit. Secondly I cant see Munich winning this game, why? Bayern won’t be able to dominate possession because their technically inferior and secondly, there not that special playing a counter attacking style because their midfielders are neither excellent at attack, defence or are hard running. Bayern having to play an unfamiliar style will upset their rhythm and Madrid will capitalise. You can expect Mourinho to have people snapping at Robben and Ribery all night, eliminating the supply to Gomez.
Yes Munich have probably lost the league and this is their only hope, but this motivation could work against teams on par with them such as Chelsea, but Madrid is in a class above. I expect Bayern to be extra eager to score and gain an advantage, but this will play into Madrid’s hands.
The special one is a master at 2 legged ties and his team would have needed to walk under ladders to butcher this one.
I consider the madrid win (draw no bet) option a free bet in this match.