Surface - red clay
Sara Errani vs Julia Goerges
(33) ranking (16)
1690 points 2735
(0) previous meetings (1)
At the start of the competition I took outrights bet on Julia Goerges to win this tournamnet. And so far so good, Goerges played good tennis, she proved that can be equally good on clay as on hard court. After today's match (and win I hope), IMO no one will stop her.
But what is interesting about today's match and what made me to take this new bet on German player are these odds. There is no way that Errani can be favourite in this match, not even a slight favorite. So, this +2 games of handicap on Goerges IMO should be in the opposite direction. After all, how Goerges can be underdog in this match when at this moment the same bookie (Pinnacle) offers this German player as favourite no.1 to win the trophy in Barcelona. For me it makes no sense. But in any case, who cares about that. It is important that Errani although likes to play on this surface, can't win this match or at least can't win easily. If Goerges takes at least one set plus with this initial +2 games handicap, then I think everything will be fine for this pick.
There was one head to head in the past and Goerges won after three sets and with 18-16 advantage in games.