NFL - Colts v Saints

7 February 2010

Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)

They call this the “Biggest day in American Sport” so we better give it a half decent write up for you guys to make your minds up about this Intriguing match that awaits us.

This might be the first time for a while where the No 1 sides from either Conference have made it to the big game and what promise for us Neutrals this match provides, Two of the best attacking sides in the National Football League with Two of the Best QB’s in Manning and Brees, both accurate passers and both great leaders of their individual sides, Both men can carry their side to Victory and have done so all season long, whichever one of these two Brilliant QB’s can lead their side to a win today will sure deserve it and for us viewers it should be a great game with a feast of Entertainment, I’m glad I didn’t go back to Jail yesterday as I wouldn’t of got to watch this match on Monday, Now the Party's on at my place, the 3 wide screens are in place, the weed is in bountiful supply and the Drinks will be flowing as I would imagine it will be in numerous parts of the World for those who are interested in the spectacle that is the Superbowl.

The Saints have ridden a wave of Emotion since just getting home against the Vikings in the NFC Championship game and what a game that was for the viewer, twists and turns, ups and downs before Favre did what he always does and blew it and the Saints as they have done all season long came away with the win and a Shot at becoming true Heroes in “The Big Easy” As Brees and the Saints attempt to win the Big one at their first time of asking, The 43-year-old franchise has never appeared in the Super Bowl but has a great chance to return there with their first especially with Brees at the helm of the Saints ship, Brees led the NFL with a 109.8 passer rating, throwing for 4,388 yards and a league-best 34 touchdown passes. With Brees at the helm of the Saints ship they led the NFL with 31.9 points per game. The Saints defence which at times has been shaky this season has survived the tests they have been faced with and has had it’s moments of brilliance, New Orleans ranked 20th in scoring defense, giving up 21.3 points a contest, and has surrendered a total of 42 in the postseason. The Saints have forced 39 Turn overs this season and 7 these playoffs, In the NFC Title game the Saints Defence took two Interceptions from Favre and recovered 3 Fumbles but even though they achieved that they failed to register a single sack in that game although bashing Favre all game long and in their 2 Play off games the Saints are yet to pass 2 sacks in those efforts, even though winning and reaching the QB with a strong and quick pass rush defence. To help out their defense, New Orleans may focus a bit more on running the ball in an attempt to control the clock and keep Manning off the field. Pierre Thomas led the Saints with 793 rushing yards on the season and is a hard man to stop but Bush could be the real factor in this match today after what has been a pretty disappointing season for him, especially with as much talent and quickness he has at his disposal, so far this Post Season Bush has run one TD apiece rushing, receiving and returning in the postseason. Last time these two sides met Bush was held to 38 yards on 12 carries, seven yards on four receptions and two yards on one punt return, but he will be far harder to stop this time around and he also has a great record of showing up in the big games. The Saints are a chance here no matter what anyone says.

The Colts to have had a season to remember not just because of their great play but also because of the amount of injuries they have had this season and yet continued to win, of course a lot of the praise and so it should be has been heaped on Manning and what a season he has had, It must be a strange feeling for him lining up against the Saints who are his hometown team, once quarterbacked by his father, But emotion must be put to the side as Manning trys to lead the Colts to their second title in four years Three years ago, Manning led Indianapolis to a 29-17 win over Chicago in South Florida and is now back to try and do that again, Not only did Manning grow up in New Orleans but his Father still lives there and it’s not only Peyton with ties to the City as Colts WR Reggie Wayne also grew up there and Colts RB Joseph Addai was still playing for LSU when Hurricane Katrina devastated the area in 2005. Manning has really come on as a Leader since days gone by, Manning once was criticized for his failure to win big games, but he’s won six of his last eight playoff contests and has taken the Colts to a 16-2 record this season, The Colts were seventh in the League this season in PPG with an average of 26ppg. Manning really was Brilliant in leading the Colts past the Ravens and Jets - two of the league’s best defenses - in this postseason. Manning has a 104.6 passer rating throwing a total of five TDs and one interception, Manning passed for 377 yards and three touchdowns against the league’s top-ranked Jets defense in the AFC championship game, However one bad thing to come from that game was the Injury to Dwight Freeny The All-Pro defensive end, who led Indianapolis with 3 1/2 sacks,, I expect him to play but it could be in a limited role.Freeney’s absence would be a big blow to the Colts, who ranked eighth in scoring defense with 19 ppg and they have been very quick and impressive throughout these play offs.

The Saints are 3-2 in their last 5 against the Colts and are also 3-2 ATS, However it should be said that neither side is playing at home in this match and the last two times the Colts have played the Saints it ended badly in either game for the Saints as they were thrashed off the Field, 41-10 at Indy and 55-21 in new Orleans, Last time these two sides met the Colts wiped the floor with them in a 41-10 Colts win in 07,Manning threw for 288 yards and three TDs - two to Wayne - while Brees was picked off twice and finished with 192 yards.

Another interesting thing to bring up here is that this game will be played on Grass, On their seasons Indy are 5-0 on grass their avg margin of victory is 10.5 pts While the Saints are 4-1 on grass with avg margin of victory of 12 pts.

A lot of these sides season stats are different but in many ways either side makes up for that in other areas of their game, here's a few examples, Saints average 31 points per game, the Colts 26 but the Saints allow 21ppg while the Colts allow 19ppg, The Saints throw for on seasons averages 272 yards per game while the Colts season average in the air is 282, On the rush though and the Colts average 80yards per game while the Saints season average is 131, On defence and the Saints passing defence allows 235 yards through the air while the Colts allows 212 but on the rush and the Colts defence allows on season averages 126 yard per game compared to the Saints 122…Lets go deeper and look at some ranking comparisons…..

Saints Offence: The Saints as already mentioned rank 1st in the League in scoring with 31ppg, their best scoring quarters are the 2nd(11) and 3rd (8), They average 27 running plays per game with an average of 4.5ypc and a season average of 131ypg, Passing and the Saints average 34 passing attempts with a completion rating of 69%, their average gain is 11.5 ypp with a season average of 272 passing yards per match and they allow less than 1 INT per game, They also allow on average 1 sack per game and 1 fumble per game with an average of 2 turnovers per match on their season to date, Penalty wise and the Saints Offence give up on average 5 per game for a loss of 49 yards per match, This Saints offence average 64 plays per game and average 6 yards per play, they also hold onto the ball in TOP for 31 mins of each match they have played.

Saints Defence:The Saints defence is ranked 20th in the League on average allowing 21ppg, Their best defensive Quarter is the 4th where they allow only 3ppg which has them ranked as No 1 in 4th Quarter defence, They rank 21st in rushing defence allowing on seasons averages 122ypg with an average of 4.5 yards per attempt,Passing defence and they allow 235 yards per match and allow an average of 11 yards per passing attempt, they do though rank 3rd in the league Interception wise with 2 per match, The Saints defence also average on their season 2 sacks per game and 1 forced fumble per game as they create on seasons average 3 turnovers per match, Penalty yards though is not good as they give up on Seasons average 5 per game and give away in Penalty yards 44 yards per match.

Colts Offence: The Colts rank 7th in the League with an average of 26ppg,their best scoring quarters are the 2nd(9) and 4th(7), They average 22 rushing plays per game for a season average of 80 yards per game with an average of 3.5 ypc, Passing wise and the Colts rank 2nd with 37 passing attempts per game, 1st in completions and 4th in pass percentage at 66%, they average 282 passing yards per game to rank 2nd in the league and gain 11 yards per passing play, they also allow 1 INT per game, They average less than 1 sack per game and less than 1 fumble per game ranking 1st in the league in either category, They on seasons averages give up 4.5 penalties per game on offence that costs them 34 penalty yards per game ranking them 2nd in that category, This Colts offence average 61 plays per gae and average 6 yards per play ranking therm 3rd in the League.

Colts Defence: The Colts defence ranks 8th in the League allowing 19ppg, their best defensive quarters are the 1st(4) and 3rd(3), They Rank 24th in the League in rushing yards allowed with 126 per game with an average of 4.3 ypc, Passing wise and the Colts 14th in the league allowing 212 and 1st at in yards per pass at 9yards per passing play,They also average 1 INT per match, Their defence is very quick and this Colts defence average 2 sacks per game and on seasons average force one fumble per game, Penalty wise and the Colts defence average 5 per game costing them a whooping 55 penalty yards per contest, On seasons average the Colts allow 67 plays which ranks them at 31st in the league with an average of 5 yards per play.

All in all there are things to like about either side and both sides really make up for any frailties they have against the other side in other areas, Freeny will not be at his best no matter how long he plays in this game and that will cost the Colts a bit, the Saints really have the rushing attack to trouble the Colts and really should try and use it to their advantage as they try to keep Manning off the field and with Freeny not at 100% they should get some joy there, Either side is worthy of taking here but the Saints have the more balanced attack for me with their run and passing game and in defence they can tighten up when they need to, If this game is close with less than 5 to play I expect both sides to ne sweating on possession as either sides have the men to lead their sides down field and collect the win…Great game to look forward to and it should be very close with an exciting end, I’ll stick my neck out and side with the Saints to either win outright or lose in the dying seconds, Personally I think they might just win outright…Good Luck.