NFL - Saints v Arizona Cardinals

16 January 2010

Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)

I just want to get this Match out early as I am unsure of which way this Start is heading, any lower and I might have my doubts , but not really as I fancy the Cardinals anyway to win this match outright, Lets have a gander anyway….

Arizona got by the Pacers and one of the Leagues best offences and defences and now they just like they did last Post season have to travel if they want to progress in these play offs, I have watched the Cardinals all season long and have been thinking for a while now that they not the Steelers are the more likely to be a threat in these play offs and after their last effort I reckon they have shown just how much of a handful they can be and against the Saints they will be also.

The Saints have had a great season to date but as I have already said earlier this season I have my doubts about them, you can have the best record in the league but when you have to continually come from behind to win games then I am loathed to fancy your chances of going all the way, Brees has been fantastic all season long and has really showed his worth while the Saints offence has to be one of the best balanced, their main problem though has been defence and that has worried me about them for a while now, their offence has had to be so good this season as their defence at times has been shocking, at home they have gone well though and in big games especially they have been out standing, however this game today will be a real test for them and I am not to sure exactly how they will come through it., The Saints average winning margin at home has been 10 points this season which for a side who average over 420 total offensive yards per game is hardly great as you would expect far more telling scorelines.

The Cardinals are back again and with Kurt Warner running their offence and a Road defence that has improved out of sight they for me are a chance here today, Warner has led his sides in the post season to now 9 wins and only 3 defeats and he knows how to play when this time of the season rolls around, add in that Boldin is likely back this weekend and it gets even harder to break them down, last week against the Packers they gained 531 total yards of offence against a side who had been brilliant entering that match and for a non rushing team they have gained 110 ypg rushing in 3 of their last 4 matches, The way the Cardinals finished last week against the Packers mirrors their season averages with them being hard to break down earlier but faltering in the final 2 Quarters, however Wisenhunt is bound to get stuck into the Cardinals defence this weekend as he as we all do know how dangerous this Saints side can be especially from behind, However with Warner going the way he is they could establish a lead and hang onto it.

These sides have played only 6 times since 1996 with either side winning 3 a piece, while the Saints are 4-2 ATS in those most recent matches, 3 of those matches have been played in New Orleans with the Saints winning the last 2 31-24 in 2007 and 10-27 in 1997, the Cardinals did win in 1996 though in new Orleans 28-14.

The Saints have had a great season and of their 8 home matches they have won 6 while losing their last 2 regular season matches, They are also 4-4 ATS in those matches, The Saints on seasons average score 31 ppg at home which ranks them as the second best Home Offence in the League, The Saints average 28 rushing plays per game at home to rank them at 13th in the League and they gain 120ypg to rank them at 15th in the league, their average gain per carry is 4.26 ypr to ranks them at 12th in the league, Home passing and as you would expect the Saints have been very good with 33 passing attempts per match to rank them 20th in the league, they complete on average 24 of those plays to rank them 4th in the league but they rank No.1 in pass completion at home with a 73% success rating and they rank 1st in road passing yards with 303ypg, They give away 1 sack at home per game but they also average 2 fumbles at home per game, They hold the ball for 30 mins of every home game to rank them at 14, make on average 60 plays per game at home to rank them as 20 but the Saints are ranked No.1 with yards per play averaging 6.71 per every play they make at home.

The Saints may have had a great season but their defence has regularly allowed points, here’s their Home defence average for the season, The Saints rank 20th in Home defence allowing 21ppg, Their home rushing defence ranks 24th with 130 rushing yards per match and allow per rush 4.5ypr to rank them at 25th in the league, Home passing defence and the Saints rank 11th per completion allowing 18 of 34 passing plays per average which ranks them at 4th in that category allowing a completion rating of against visiting sides of 54%, They rank 24th in home passing yards allowed on average allowing 227 ypg and they rank a bad 30th in yards allowed per passing play allowing 12 ypp, But they alos rank 2nd in INT’s per home game on average making almost 2 per game,They rank 8th in sacks per home game on average making 2 per game and they rank 3rd overall in turnovers averaging 2.5 per home game, The Saints rank 289th in the league in plays per game allowing on average 65 plays and they rank 23rd overall at yards per attempt allowing 5.45 per game.

The Cardinals this season have played 8 road games winning 6 of those 8 matches, On average the Cardinals have scored 25ppg to rank them as the 6th best Road offence team, They are 5-3 ATS in those matches, Rushing wise the Cardinals average 25 attempts per game averaging 112 ypg to rank them at 17th for attempts with an average of 4.85 per carry which ranks them as 8th in the League on Road Rushing, Passing wise and the Cardinals have on average 34 passing plays per game to rank them 12th in the league, On seasons average they complete 23 on those plays to rank them as the 3rd best road completion per attempt side, the Cardinals complete those passing plays at 68.5% to rank them as 2nd in the League in Road passing, They average 234pypg which ranks them 8th in the league with an average of 10 yards per pass completion and they average less than 1 INT per game on the road. The Cardinals allow 1 sack per game to rank them 9th in allowing Road sacks, A big one for the Cardinals heading into this match is TOP as the Cardinals in road games this season rank 9th in the league holding the ball for an average of 31 mins per game, On average making 61 offensive plays which ranks them 18th in the league but they do average almost 6 yards per play which ranks them as the 8th best road offence per play side.

On Defence on the Road the Cardinals have been very good this season which is a great improvement as they have been one of the worst in seasons gone by, the Post Season run last season really has brought some self belief to this Cardinals side and their defence has gone well when playing away this season, The Cardinals defence is ranked 2nd in the league allowing on average 17ppg, They are at their best in the opening 2 quarters and fade to wards the end of their matches, The Cardinals road rushing defence allows 114 ypg to rank them at 15th in the league and they also allow 5ypr to rank them at 32nd in the league, Passing wise and the Cardinals rank 15th in the league is stopping pass completions allowing 20 completed pass plays per game, However they rank first in completion per game allowing only 50% of passing plays from their opponents, they have the 15th best road passing defence allowing 221 passing yards per game and they rank 6th in Road INTs averaging almost 2 per road match., The Cardinals also average 3 sacks per road game to rank them as the second best road sack team in the league, They also cause almost 2 fumbles per road game to rank them at 9th and are the 5th best road defence at forcing turnovers with 2 per game to rank them at 5th in the League.

The Cardinals are agin not fancied here and that’s fair enough as the Saints have a tremendous home record as well as a great season record but I fancy them to win this game or lose it at the death, Kurt Warner is a proven performer and the Cardinals have been great on the road this season and last season in the play offs, The Cardinals have won 6 of their 8 road games and all of their averages are better away from Glendale than at home, their two losses came to the Titans 20-17 on the last play of the game and against the 49ers 24-9, Whatever the result here I rate the Cardinals as a huge chance to progress here and I’m looking forward to a very exciting game with two of the best leaders in Warner and Brees to step up….Good Luck.