NFL - Patriots v Ravens

10 January 2010

Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)

The last game to write on for this the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs, I miss not being on here as much as I used to be, But I sure don’t miss the endless writing and looking around….

The Patriots made it and so did the ravens, for me these two sides have been the biggest let downs for the second half of this NFL Season, but they are here and are ready, I really hope that snow is forecast come kickoff time in this match, I love watching games in the snow, it is a great spectacle and always leaves the games in the balance right to the death.

The AFC East champion Patriots loss to the Texans last week and to make it worse lost Welker to a serious left knee injury on the first possession of a 34-27 loss to Houston. Welker, the league leader with 123 receptions, will be unavailable for the playoffs after being placed on injured reserve Wednesday. Welker set a team record for receptions despite missing two games and almost all of the regular-season finale. Welker excelled as a slot receiver and now will be replaced in that role by rookie Julian Edelman, who has a similar skill set. In the two games Welker sat out and in the season finale, Edelman had a combined 21 catches for 221 yards. Welker's absence means Randy Moss will almost certainly see plenty of double coverage from Baltimore. Moss has 83 catches for 1,264 yards and finished in a three-way tie for the league lead in touchdowns with 13. Moss, though, has been held to 11 receptions for 125 yards in his last four games against the Ravens, including the Patriots' 27-21 home win Oct. 4. Meanwhile Tom Brady is nursing an assortment of injuries, but none as bad as last seasons, to make it sweeter for him On Wednesday, he was named The Associated Press 2009 NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Brady has thrown for 4,398 yards and 28 touchdowns, but has been hampered by injuries to his ribs and a finger on his right hand in recent weeks. He also does not have good numbers against the ravens in his career, Brady has a pedestrian 81.5 passer rating in three games against the Ravens, throwing for 687 yards and three TDs with one interception, and his 54.0 completion percentage against them is his lowest versus any opponent, However Brady is a tried and true performer and I expect him to again lead his Patriots side well.

Last season the Ravens had to win their final regular-season game to make the postseason as a wild-card team. They didn't have an easy time getting into the playoffs this year, either, and won its only Super Bowl after finishing the 2000 season as a wild-card team. The Ravens are now hoping to make a similar run. The Ravens do get some good news with two players returning to work last weekend, Ed Reed played in the Ravens' regular-season finale, posting five tackles last Sunday as Baltimore secured a wild-card berth. It was the first game in five weeks for Reed, who split time with Tom Zbikowski and expects to do so again against the Patriots. As well as Reid, Baltimore also got offensive tackle Jared Gaither back after he missed a month due to a foot injury which led to Baltimore had one of its best rushing games of the season, gaining 240 yards. the Ravens remain committed to running the ball. Ray Rice has been outstanding again in this his second season, rushing for 1,339 yards and seven TDs while leading the team with 78 receptions. He's complemented by Willis McGahee, who had 167 yards and three scores on 16 carries against the Raiders. McGahee has 12 touchdowns and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.

The Patriots have played the ravens only 6 times since 1995 with the Patriots yet to taste dfeat at the hands of the Ravens, The Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in those most recent 6 matches, 4 of those 6 matches have been played at New England with the pats winning all 4, some in some very lopsided scorelines, The Patriots are 3-1 ATS in those matches. New England is 5-0 all-time versus Baltimore, but this will be the teams' first playoff meeting.

On Offence The Ravens rank 9th in the league scoring wise with an average of 24ppg, On the road the ravens rank 20th in passing yards with 182per game and rushing wise the ravens rank 11th on their travels averaging 123 rushing yards per game, The Patriots meanwhile score on average 26ppg and rank 2nd in the league in pasing yards with 298 per game, rushing wise and the patriots rank 7th in the NFL with an average rushing tally per game of 140 ypg.

While on Defence the ravens rank 3rd overall allowing only 16 points per match, against the rush on the road and the ravens rank 2nd allowing 91 rushing yards per contest and through the air the Ravens defence ranks 25th allowing over 250ypg, The Patriots have had some real troubles with their defence this season just in making up the numbers but they have performed well, The Patriots rank 5th in the league allowing on average 17 ppg, Their rush defence is ranked 20th allowing 114 ypg and their pass defence allows 163ypg which ranks them at 3rd overall in the NFL this season.

The Patriots have lost Welker which is a huge blow for this side but they still have Brady and Bellichick and they also have rookie Julian Edelman, who has a similar skill set. In the two games Welker sat out and in the season finale, Edelman had a combined 21 catches for 221 yards. and so although Welker will be missed I am not expecting him to be missed as much as many of us might think, Brady is banged up but will lead his team well, the Patriots I reckon could be in for a major reshuffle should they lose this match against a Ravens side who lets be honest about it have hardly looked like Title contenders and although they have gotten to this point it has been from help from falling sides rather than their stellar play.

Last season the ravens entered the post season on a high with all things clicking for them, this season they have been anything but that same team and although they are here and they have faced the Patriots here this season narrowly losing after giving themselves a chance to win I don’t think they can win this game today, Flacco has been inconsistent all season long and even the Ravens rushing attack and defence have really not been up to the standard that many of us expect from them based on recent memory and so I’m looking for the Brady led Patriots to do what they always do and win, not by much less than 12 points…Good Luck.