NCAAF - Alabama v Texas

8 January 2010

Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)

The Long Horns look to hold off the Crimson Tide here in the Biggest Bowl Game that there is, as you all should all know by now Finals time is what I crave for in any sport, as per usual with this game and the NFL Playoffs there will be two bets on each match, one for the Points start bettors and a Total bet for the Total bettors, we begin this opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs with the Biggest College Bowl game, Ready, set, Lets go…….

Alabama and Texas have racked up quite a few trophies during the past month, But both have kept one more space open in the Trophy Cabinet as the 2 unbeaten teams met today in the Biggest Bowl game of them all for the BCS championship at the Rose Bowl on Thursday night. This season the BCS could not have provided a better match up. Coach Saban’s Crimson Tide feature Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and six first-team All-Americans, while Coach Brown’s Longhorns rely on star quarterback Colt McCoy and an equally loaded roster.

The Tide though enter this game fresh from dominating the defending BCS champion Gators 32-13 in the SEC title game, snapping the Gators’ 22-game winning streak. Ingram is the man to watch for the Tide after having a great season, Ingram rushed for a school-record 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also ran for 113 yards and three scores against Florida to help him claim college football’s highest individual honor - the first Heisman for an Alabama player. He looked great in his acceptance of the award and now Ingram is hoping to lead Alabama to its first national title since 1992. The Ground game is the Tides Bread and Butter and is ranked 12th nationally with 215.8 yards per game, However the other area that they have been solid in is their defence that has been led well by Butkus Award winner Rolando McClain, the Tide were No. 1 in scoring defense at 11.0 points per game and second in total defense at 241.8 yards a contest. McClain piled up a team-high 101 tackles - 12 1/2 for a loss - along with four sacks and two interceptions. Alabama also has a great secondary that will be looking to get to McCoy with the likes of Javier Arenas 12 tackles for loss, five sacks and Mark Barron with his seven interceptions. Add in defensive end Marcell Dareus with his team-high 6 1/2 of the Tide’s 31 sacks and you can see that the Tide fear no one entering this match today. The One area they could though be found out in is with their QB McElroy, McElroy passed for 2,450 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions so far this season but is set to face a Longhorns Defence allowing 188.9 yards per game through the air - 23rd in the nation., In the Tides last game McElroy went 12 of 18 for 239 yards with one TD and no interceptions but His ability to avoid picks will be tested by the Texas defense for sure, Texas topped the Football Bowl Subdivision with 24 interceptions, led by junior Thomas with eight - tied for second in the country - and fellow safety Blake Gideon with five. Texas forced those INTs in part because of a pass rush that racked up 41 sacks, paced by Acho (nine) and Houston (seven), So McElroy had better be ready and if the Tides Ground game is off even just slightly it could be a long night for McElroy against this Longhorns defence.

For the second year in a row the Longhorns almost threw it all away, needing a Field Goal and countless replays of the clock to figure out if they had kicked the winning 3 pointer in time, last season the Longhorns lost to Texas Tech, coming on an improbable touchdown pass with 1 second left, and so the Longhorns are here for redemption after almost missing another title game for the second straight year by a single play. However the Longhorns have the pedigree to win as they look for their second BCS championship in five years. The Longhorns can win it in the same location where they led by Vince Young beat Southern California for the title in 2005 winning 41-38 in one of college football’s most thrilling finishes, QB Colt McCoy will be looking to finish his senior year on the same sort of a high that Young did and he is the key for the Longhorns if they are to have a win in today's match, McCoy threw for 3,512 yards and 27 touchdowns while completing 70.5 percent of his passes on this season. The Maxwell Award winner as the nation’s best all-around player, who also won the Walter Camp player of the year award, McCoy directs a passing attack that was tied for 14th in the nation with 279.7 yards a game. McCoy’s top target is Shipley, who had 106 catches for 1,363 yards and 11 scores, though Malcolm Williams, James Kirkendoll and Dan Butler all contributed at least 445 yards receiving. As well as his passing game McCoy was Texas’ second-leading rusher with 348 yards behind Newton with 513, While offence is the Longhorns Cup of Joe so to speak their defence ain’t been to bad either, The Longhorns ranked first in the country in Rush defence allowing only 62.9 rushing yards allowed per contest and third with 251.8 Total yards given up per game.

Alabama has played in an NCAA-record 57 bowl games and is tied with USC for the most wins with 31. Texas has the second-most bowl appearances with 49. The Longhorns have dominated the Tide in eight meetings, going 7-0-1. The last match up came in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, a 14-12 Texas win.

A lot about either side here is similar and so picking a winner might have to come from something other than Stats, The Tide average 42 rush attempts per game gaining on average 215 yards per game with an average of 5 yds per carry, which is great, However the Texans average 37 rush attempts per game gaining on the season 152 yards per game with an average of 4 yards per carry, The most interesting thing about that is that either defence allows only 2yds per rushing attempt and both defences are strong, so if both defences show up here than it could all be on the QB’s arm for either side to get their respective sides over the finishing line and this is where there could be some wriggle room for us to have a look at…

The Tide average 25 passing plays per game completing only 15 which gives them a completion rating of 65%, they average 197 passing yards per game with an average of 12 yards per play completed, The Texans average 38 passing plays per game completing 26 on seasons average which gives them a Completion rating of 69%, they average 279 passing yards per game with an average of 10 yards per passing play, the defences for either side when it comes to defending the pass is good but the Longhorns allow one yard less than the Tide do on their seasons averages.

Turnovers and the Tide average one more TO per match than the Longhorns do but the Longhorns allow one more sack per game than the Tide so which kind of wipes that out, Fumbles and the Tide win again average one less per game than the Longhorns and penalty yardage the Tide win again by 10 yards per contest, Time of possession for either side is the same and so in many ways a lot of the most important aspects of this game fall for the Tide entering this match, However after all of that I still like the Longhorns.

The Tide may of got by the Gators but I have to say that the Gators have been awful this season and although they won their Bowl Game and Tim Tebow looked great for large chunks of this season he has been anything but the same player who guided the Gators to the title game last season and that game against the Tide was another chapter for me in just how not the same as last season he really was, I find the Tide to be a great side with a great rushing game led by Ingram and a great defensive unit but as I have watched these two sides go through their games I am always taken by the Longhorns and I rate them again heading into this game today, particularly in the QB department.

The Longhorns had a tough game to get here and almost blew it, but they made it and now they have the chance to hoist aloft the Trophy again and I think they can do it, For side to lose their most important game last season the way they did and then to almost blow their last game that allowed them to get to this point has got to have a good feeling running through their side, For me Games in American football are won by the team who are the better prepared but they also need to have leaders in the right places to make it all work and for me Colt McCoy is a two edged sword, he can pass there is no doubt of that but he can also run and so it gives the Longhorns a great platform to compete, not only do they have their receivers and RB’s but they also have a quick QB who will run if given a chance to and he has made some major gains this season I that department and for me that is a big difference, McCoy can win a game with his arm or his feet and from what I have seen of him this season I think he has the right attitude and right pedigree to do that for the Longhorns today.

Sit back and Enjoy this game as it should be tight and a great watch, I fancy a final score of 27 – 24 to the Longhorns and therefore am willing to go with them outright and for the Total to go over….Good Luck.

I’ll start on the NFL Matches for Wild card Weekend tomorrow, First up will be the Packers at the Cardinals, the last game of the opening weekend but for me probably the best betting match….Good Luck…Go the Longhorns and go Colt McCoy.(That guys name is brilliant isn’t it?)