NFL - Lions v Packers

27 November 2009

Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)

The Packers behind Rodgers visit the Lions today…I’m looking for Points here…

The Lions came back against the Browns last week to grab a great win, however this week they are likely to be without the guy who saved their bacon as Stafford the NFC player of the week could well be missing this weekend, Stafford who was out standing last weekend dislocated his left shoulder in Sunday's 38-37 win over Cleveland, which halted the Lions' six-game losing streak. There is a chance he could suit up and the Lions would love if he could but It would be a big blow for the Lions if Stafford couldn't play especially since he had his best game last weekend. Stafford set the NFL rookie passing record with 422 yards Sunday and became the youngest player to throw five touchdowns in a game. One minor positive for the Lions is that if he can’t play they do have a talented QB in Dante Culpepper standing on the sidelines for them, Culpepper has started 2 games this season for the Lions while Stafford was out injured, Culpepper led the Lions to a 26-0 loss at Green Bay, Culpepper was 6 of 14 for 48 yards with one interception in that game. The Lions though don’t like playing on Thanksgiving day and have been outscored by an average of 23.4 points in losing its last five Thanksgiving Day games since defeating the Packers 22-14 in 2003. The Lions lost to Tennessee 47-10 last Thanksgiving.

The Packers are in the Hunt for the post season but now are about to play the rest of the season without two of their best defenders, The Packers rank first in total defense, allowing an average of 295.8 yards, but Al Harris and LB Aaron Kampman were hurt in the second half of Sunday's 30-24 win over San Francisco. Once those two left the Field the 49ers strolled down the Field with ease gaining 21 second half points, both Harris and Kampman will have season-ending knee surgery. Harris will be replaced by No. 3 CB Tramon Williams while seventh-round rookie Brad Jones will likely take Williams' place. While those are bog blows for this Packers defence , the good news for them is that their offense is going great racking up a season-best 484 yards Sunday. Rodgers completed 32 of 45 passes for 344 yards with two touchdowns against the 49ers, the Packers are fourth in the league in total offense, averaging 403.4 yards, and eighth in scoring offense, averaging 26.2 points. They should have some success against this Lions defence who rank last in scoring defense at 30.1 and 31st in total defense allowing 401.9ypg, Rodgers threw for 358 yards with two touchdowns and one pick against the Lions last month while Grant rushed for 90 yards, In three career games against Detroit, Rodgers has passed for 994 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception.

The Packers are 9-1 in their last 10 against the Lions and are also 6-4 ATS in those matches, At Detroit and the Packers are 3-1 having won their last 3 matches played there, they are also 3-1 ATS in those games, Total wise and 5 of the last 10 have been over the set total and in those matches in Detroit the last 3 have gone over the set total, while 4 of the last 5 at any venue have been over the total set for today’s match.

The Packers aren’t bad and will fancy their chances of winning against a Lions side who are still yet to find their feet on both sides of the ball this season, Every single stat points to a Packers win, they score more this season with 26ppg compared to the Lions 18ppg, they allow less conceding 20ppg to the Lions 30ppg, The Packers pass and rush for more than 30 yards in either category than the Lions do and allow far less in either part of their game passing or rushing than the Lions do, In fact the Lions give away a whooping 85 more yards passing wise and 30 yards rushing wise than the Packers do which is not good for them entering this match against Rodgers who can pass very well.

I like the Packers here a lot but am worried about the big start for the Packers and the losses in defence, The Lions won last weekend and will fell good about how they did that coming from behind after looking gone midway through the first quarter against the Browns, For me it all points to points for either side and therefore I’m on the total to go over in this one….Good Luck.