Champions League - AZ Alkmaar v Olympiakos

AZ - Olympiakos:

U2.5 @ 1.80 (Stan James) 8/10,

AZ -0.25 @ 1.91 (SBO) 5/10

So, AZ hosts Olympiakos in this crucial game for the group, since Arsenal is more or less a clear favourite to end up 1st. AZ in a mediocre of a season really, already far behind title contenders Ajax and Twente in the league, certainly has hopes for a qualifying seat here, but will be disappointed to end up in 4th place, so a 3rd place is their realistic target and a Europa League continuation in their european journey. Olympiakos on the other hand has their own problems, going after Panathinaikos in a big battle in top seats of the league, but already with some blows, a cup disqualification, a rough start, a cooach change and a series of injuries hurting the squad. In CL, their two wins at home bring them in 2nd qualifying spot and that seems to be the highlight of the season so far and they certainly don't want to sacrifice that in that game.

Well, that's only one part of the truth, since they have a huge game in midweek vs Panathinaikos and you can bet they can get a godsend deal to lose this game and win Panathinaikos and they won't even get on the pitch today. The president of the club visited the players trying to have them more alert for this tough week, ending his speech: "we need the win vs Panathinaikos". So, it's a tense week for them and it is unclear of Avraam Papadopoulos will make it to this game as being the most in doubt player. Everyone ones in doubt tries to get fit for Sunday's clash.

So, what we can expect from Olympiakos here is nothing different than what they have shown in whole european campaign, especially in away games. A concentrated approach. Their defence is good and even if Papadopoulos doesn't make it, they remain solid in the back. Coming to a game where one point and a draw is golden, we can expect them to take NO risks unless they concede. Having in mind they seem to be a tired squad with same old guys playing back to back with no real rotation, they will leave posession to the team that uses to handle that part of the game in most games so far. AZ even had posession in home game vs Arsenal. Their main worry is their inefficiency upfront and with El Hemdaoui being out, they heavily rely on in form Jens to deliver. They seem to be improved after a rough start, but then again they are far from good. They have try to be competitive in the group and that is their goal in tonight's game. A win and only a win would mean anything to them, so they will have the offensive part here.

So, in my mind we have a very predictable game. Under2.5 of 1.80 from Stan James is not only a standout price but a standout bet here. I have placed a big bet on that and everything points to that possibility. Olympiakos is struggling right now and if they score I doubt they will be overscored by AZ. But my guess is that maximum Olympiakos can get from this game is a draw, a scoreless or an 1-1 one. But that is their good scenario. The bad one for them and the most possible for the game is having AZ clinching it taking advantage of Olympiakos fatigue, the bad form of many major players and their bigger motivation as Olympiakos can lose and still take a simple draw vs B squad Arsenal (provided Standard loses tonight from Arsenal and they fail to win AZ) and still qualify as 2nd. In any case, they are the favourites coming in this game and odds on them are good to take. My pick is the asian handicap of -0.25, which gives half stake back in case of draw and I am willing to add that in my main bet of draw in the game. I rarely exceed the 10-unit barrier and this occasion seems worth it. GL!

Pick : U2.5 & -0.25 AH
Odds : 1.49
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Stan James
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.bettingadvice.com/showPredictionsLeague.php?idMenu=204

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