Aintree - Race 3 v Race Winner

17 September 2009

Preview By Tipster rdeacon (England)

Start of the Ayr Gold Cup festival, but I fancy one away from the scottish track today. I like one in the 3.30 at Pontefract.This is a class 4 handicap run over 1 Mile.

This looks a very open and highly competitive handicap.

This looks sure to be a true test, with plenty of early pace looking likely.

Motafarred, Samarinda and Thunderball all usually like to go from the front.

With the likes of Bibury, Intersky Charm and Tarzan all likely to be prominent early aswell, a good strong pace looks guaranteed.That being the case, things could just be set up nicely for something finishing strongly from off the pace.The horse I am going to take a chance with at the prices today is number 6 ADDIKT.

This horse is now trained by Geoff Harker and will be ridden today by useful claimer Patrick Donaghy.

Addikt has won twice from his 16 career starts.

Both those wins came last year over 1 Miles and 2 furlongs.

At first glance, the drop back to 1 Mile today might not look ideal.However, Pontefract is a very stiff and testing track.

Couple that with the fact there looks to be plenty of early pace on here, and a strongly run mile on a stiff track might just turn out to be ideal for this horse.

Addikt looked quite useful last year, when winning his 2 races.

The latter of those 2 wins came at Doncaster last July.

He won that day from a rating of 83.

Taking the jockeys claim into account, he races today from an effective rating of just 69.The horse looks very well treated.Clearly there is a reason for the horse having dropped markedly in the weights, and that is that he hasn't been running well enough of late.

Infact after his last win he went right off the boil.

He changed stables at the end of last season, joining Geoff Harker.

The horse has had just 4 runs for this yard.

He made a decent enough start, finishing 4th on both his first 2 starts.

He has followed that up with 2 poor efforts since though.

Clearly a horse that frustrates, but also one that does have some ability.

It's quite possible that he, like many other handicappers, is a horse that just needs everything to drop right for him.

It might just be that things go his way today.

Todays race looks like being run at a good strong pace, with plenty of front runners and prominent racers in the field.

With Pontefract being a stiff track also, it's likely that stamina will play a part at the finish.

If you are a horse that barely stays 1 mile, then a strongly run race at Pontefract won't be ideal.

The way this race looks like being run, you will need to stay further than this 1 mile trip.

The fact that Addikt has twice won over 1 miles and 2 furlongs could tell late on if he can keep in touch early.

The pace is likely to be set by Motafarred, Samarinda and Thunderball, with Bibury, Intersky Charm and Tarzan likely to be close up too.

That could set things up for a finisher, and it could just be that Addikt can stay on best of all today.

He is certainly handicapped to run well.

One possible negative is that Addikt can sometimes get behind in his races and leave himself too much to do.

He will need to stay in touch early here today.

If he doesn't get too far behind here, then he could just be staying on strongly at the finish.

Although stall 14 doesn't look the best of draws, for a hold up performer it shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience.

He should be able to drop out and tuck in behind.

If he consents to put his best foot forward, Addikt can go well here today.

Addikt is clearly not the most reliable of animals, but he does have ability, as he showed when winning last year from a rating of 83.

Todays effective rating of 69 should be well within his compass.With things likely to be run to suit the horse today, he is worth chancing each way at the prices, in what is a very open looking contest.

3 points EACH WAY (6points in total) ADDIKT @ 26.0 with Boylesports 1/4 odds a place 1,2,3