Premiership - Stoke City v Burnley

15 August 2009

Preview By Tipster Rooney (England)

Asian Handicap Line -0.5 : +0.5

I'm really excited writing after such a long time. Unfortunately this year I am not going to be able to write my picks every weekend, 'cause I need to do my army service in a few days, meaning barely no access to a pc for 8 months (omg I'm feeling already the rush). I had my vacations at Corfu this year and I recharged my baterries ahead of a thrilling EPL season, hopefully as profitable as last year.

Well 'nough with the intro, let me tell you why I am picking this game so early. Normally I wouldn't place a bet until we see some preformances from the teams (at least 3-4 matches) but in this case I need to make an exception as the bookies are challenging my tranquility once more.

Stoke did well enough last year on the 2nd round to survive, the coach remained on his bench keeping most of his key players and splashing the cash (5m) to Steve Bruce's Sunderland for skipper Dean Whitehead. Maybe he felt the team needed a natural leader I can't blame him, he will be praying though that James Beattie will repeat his goal rush or maybe that Delap will not dislocate his arm with his rocket throw-in's.

Other than that 2 fairly unknown but talented players from Crewe Alexandra were obtained in an attempt to aid in the striking force and in the midfield indicating either that the manager is not happy with the up front line or he hasn't got enough funds at his disposal to make the difference. Stoke will fight for survival again this year and this match at the Brittania could be the start that Pullis is dreaming of.

I saw Burnley live last year at Stamford Bridge with a good friend of mine and we were both impressed by the spirited support and the team in the field. Very capable bunch of lads I can assure you. Chelsea didn't have all the 'big guns' on the field however Drogba was there, along with Lampard and Ballack, only missing influential Peter Chech. Burnley gave them a good scare and looked the Giant straight in the eyes.

This year the manager didn't sell any of his good players and released just 3, putting his money where his mouth is. He initially bought promising Steven Fletcher for 3m from Scottish Hibernian, while he made sure he exploited his knowledge of the lower leagues buying affordable Easton for 350k and luring Tyron Mears for Derby County just from half a million-quid. That is some bargain. I can see a very solid Burnley this year probably finishing easily above the relegation line with Wolves & Hull looking really dim and dull they should -stay- up in the end and this away match to Stoke is a genuine 6-pointer, the players must know it.

Concluding I would like to say that the main reason for taking this bet are the odds. Stoke is presented as a stong favorite (like last year's City or Spurs were playing the Clarets) and I am totally opposite to this line from the bookies in an evenly matched fixture (Stoke 25%, Draw 55% , Burnley 20%)..What is even better are the odds. Almost evens for the draw and the away win --> 75% of the result as I see it. That is 3/4 exactly the same odds of paying a ridiculously pot to see the river from the turn going greedingly for the flush, that is for all of you who think that Stoke is going to have an easy afternoon. Of course Stoke are going to be lifted by the home crowd as well, but I have Burnley capable of even overturning a bad 1-0 for them and I am convinced that the weak-slow Stoke defense is going to concede one goal (at least) on Saturday. Clarets will -not- leave Brittania empty handed! Good luck to everyone with your thoughts!

PS. odds are from 10bet