Tri Series - New South Wales v Queensland

3 June 2009

Preview By Tipster Jumbo (New Zealand)

New South Wales: 1 Kurt Gidley, captain (Newcastle Knights), 2 Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta Eels), 3 Jamie Lyon (Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles), 4 Michael Jennings (Penrith Panthers), 5 James McManus (Newcastle Knights), 6 Terry Campese (Canberra Raiders), 7 Peter Wallace (Brisbane Broncos), 8 Luke Bailey (Gold Coast Titans), 9 Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers), 10 Brent Kite (Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles), 11 Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra Dragons), 12 Luke O'Donnell (North Queensland Cowboys), 13 Paul Gallen (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks). Subs: 14 Craig Wing (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 15 Justin Poore (St George Illawarra Dragons), 16 Luke Lewis (Penrit Panthers), 17 Michael Weyman (St George Illawarra Dragons).

Queensland: 1 Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm), 2 Darius Boyd (St George Illawarra Dragons), 3 Greg Inglis (Melbourne Storm), 4 Justin Hodges (Brisbane Broncos), 5 Israel Folau (Brisbane Broncos), 6 Darren Lockyer, captain (Brisbane Broncos), 7 Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys), 8 Steve Price (New Zealand Warriors), 9 Cameron Smith (Melbourne Storm), 10 Petero Civoniceva (Penrith Panthers), 11 Ashley Harrison (Gold Coast Titans), 12 Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos), 13 Dallas Johnson (Melbourne Storm). Subs: 14 Karmichael Hunt (Brisbane Broncos), 15 Ben Hannant (Bulldogs), 16 Nate Myles (Sydney Roosters), 17 Michael Crocker (South Sydney Rabbitohs).

I see there has been some massive bets on the Maroons to win Game 1 and the Series,the Series well fair enough but 30k on them to win Game1 and 20k on the Maroons by 13+ in a State of Origin Series whoa that's way to much,personally I don't like betting to heavily on Rep footy as anything can happen and with the line ups named for this first game and it being in Melbourne the odds I would say should be about even not priced the way they have been right now.

I run through this Blues side and I am pleased with what i see,I still have major doubts over Campese but otherwise they have picked for the first time on form apart from Brett Kite who I would not rate as top of the tree for the Blues selection wise but otherwise they have done well,they have chosen a good mix of experience and UN experienced players and they as I have said chosen on form which makes this Blues side look very good and should be good enough to stand up to the Might of the Maroons this time around and really give them a run for their money.

You look at both sides and the Maroons still stand out but this season they will have some real competition with the Blues looking for a back line to match them and as far as I have seen Hayne,Lyon and Jennings are the best in the comp this season in their chosen positions and are more than a match for Folau,Hodges and Inglis in fact the whole of the Blues back line being lead by both Wallace who has been outstanding this season and Campese have chosen very well indeed with all of the back line for the Blues with the 5 I have mentioned and Gidley and McManus and all of this back line are in fine form and raring to go,add in a forward pack with Bailey and Kite up front,Farah finally getting a call up to test his wears in Origin period and their front row looks very good,move to their back row and again good selections with Gallen,Creagh and O'Donnell and I like their back row far more than I like the Maroons but their real strength is their bench with some big boppers who are all in form waiting to make an impact on this game,both Poore and Weymen have been outstanding going forward this season and Lewis will suit the Origin atmosphere perfectly,Wing well I am not sure that he warrants selection but he is there and if their forward pack is rolling forward then he will slot in nicely,all in all a very strong and in form Blues side for Game 1 and they'll need it,not because they are not in the same class as the Maroons but because mentally the Blues are a scarred side and with the changes it brings an excitement to the group and self belief that they can turn things around and lead NSW to a victory this Series.

The Maroons have the title and are sitting on a record should they win this Series again but saying it and doing it are two different things altogether,you run through this Maroons side and once again you look at it and say "Wow" but there are signs that the edge they once had in abundance is starting to fade and with that comes hope for the Blues,the Maroons back line is again full of class and is the Australian back line which we all know can and do perform to a very high level so we won't go there but their forward power that once was so good is starting to fade and now even with a great looking front row of Petro,Smith and Price you have to admit that they are getting older and will struggle like they did in Game 1 last season against a younger and fitter Blues pack,look at their back row and there is more reason for Blues optimism with Thaiday really the only standout,Harrison and Jhonson are both great players but are more of defenders rather than attacking ball runners and on their bench they have 3 great forwards who are all proven at this level but I have yo say that only Hannant is in form while Myles and Crocker have been chosen on merit and past history rather than real form and Hunt deserves his place but he is not really an impact player who can come off the bench and will take a while to get into any of these games should he continue to start games from there,all in all the Maroons have chosen about the best that they can and have stuck with their tried and tested rather than look for better options and why would they,time after time these players have stood up and delivered but whether or not their time of being so dominant is running out remains to be seen,they have the pedigree to win and players to do the job but this will be the hardest of all of the most recent series and they will have to lift to another level to stop this Blues side this time around.

Here's the last few results between the two sides...

State of Origin, 02-Jul-2008 at ANZ Stadium : NSW vs Queensland 10 - 16

State of Origin, 11-Jun-2008 at Suncorp Stadium : Queensland vs NSW 30 - 0

State of Origin, 21-May-2008 at ANZ Stadium : NSW vs Queensland 18 - 10

State of Origin, 04-Jul-2007 at Suncorp Stadium : Queensland vs NSW 4 - 18

State of Origin, 13-Jun-2007 at Telstra Stadium : NSW vs Queensland 6 - 10

State of Origin, 23-May-2007 at Suncorp Stadium : Queensland vs NSW 25 - 18

State of Origin, 05-Jul-2006 at Telstra Dome : NSW vs Queensland 14 - 16

State of Origin, 14-Jun-2006 at Suncorp Stadium : Queensland vs NSW 30 - 6

State of Origin, 24-May-2006 at Telstra Stadium : NSW vs Queensland 17 - 16

You would be hard pressed to go past the Maroons here but this Blues side has no baggage from past Origin failures and has players in real form right now and they will match up well to this Queensland side especially in the forwards,set up men and Wallace and Thurston are in great touch but Campese and Lockyer well the jury is till out on both of them,the forwards and I think the Blues have a major edge there and on the bench and really only the Maroons back line makes them look better than the Blues and even then the Blues have chosen in form players who could easily make a difference,the Blues have won 2 of the last 3 opening games in these Series but Queensland have excelled in Games 2 and 3 and I think that could be the case again this time around,the Blues have chosen on form and I think that could be the difference here to open this Series...Take the Blues to win Game 1 in Melbourne....Good Luck.